Addressing an audience at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and more than 100 webcast viewers, Israel’s Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon covered the rocky surrounds bordering the Jewish State of Israel.

Noting first the artificial character of some states imposed almost 100 years ago by the Sykes-Picot Agreement (1916), Yaalon observed that the region’s monarchies seemed to be surviving or enjoying stability while the secular dictatorships were on their way to collapse.

“What dominates the Middle East,” Yaalon said, “is instability.”

Syria

“I can’t see stability for the near future,” Yaalon said of Syria where he believed ethnic cleansing seemed to be taking place between Sunnis and Alewites, and he noted that at this point Assad controlled only about 40 percent of Syria’s territory.

Articulating Israel’s policy in Syrian, Yaalon said, “We do not intervene; we do not interfere.”

On Israel’s “red lines” associated with the fighting in the neighboring state, Yaalon said Israel would not allow 1)  the delivery of sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah or others, 2) the delivery of chemical agents to the same adversaries, 3) and it would maintain its sovereignty in the Golan Heights.

Jordan

Yaalon called Jordan an “asset for stability in the region” and for that “We believe Jordan should be supported by the U.S. and other states.”

Egypt and Sinai

“Their only safe border is the border with us,” Yaalon said of Egypt’s security outlook.

Citing three areas of challenge for Egypt — its economic health, political stability, and common citizen security, Yaalon felt cooperation between the two defense forces, Egypt’s and Israel’s, bolstered by predicating American aid on Egyptian commitment to the peace accords, provided the key to maintaining Egypt’s stability.

Earlier in his talk, Yaalon had called Sinai a “no-man’s land” and expressed hope that “Egypt will deal with terrorists in the Sinai.”

Palestinian Arena

While noting that Israel had “many security grievances” with the Palestinian governments, he said, “In the meantime, let’s improve things from the bottom up” referring to economic development and the encouragement good governance.

However, he cited equal attention to education as missing, or as a means for incitement, this noted with a nod toward the Palestinian Authority.

“Without this kind of change” [in the way Palestinian children are educated] “we can’t be optimistic about the situation.”

Later, during the event’s question session, Yaalon said that “Money given the Palestinian Authority should be conditional on the educational grounds.”

Iran

Tossing the audience first a candid coin with “democtatorship” to characterize the regime in Iran, Yaalon said, “The regime should face a clear dilemma” with regard to going on with its nuclear program and its survival as a regime.

Yaalon pointed out Iran’s exporting of militant cells to foreign states on the way to its creating “a Shiite caliphate all over the globe” to defeat the “Great Satan” AKA “Western Civilization” and cautioned that its ambitions should be taken seriously.

Yaalon went on to say, “The nuclear project should be stopped” by diplomatic means, economic crisis, support of the opposition, and by the presentation of a “credible military option.”

“Otherwise,” Yaalon said, “They will go on maneuvering and sacrificing” [economically].

Turkey

Asked about Israeli-Turkish reconciliation, Yaalon noted benefits accruing to both states up to 2004 by way of common strategic interest and defense cooperation.

“Two years after the election,” he said, “We started to see the change to associate with our enemies.”

Citing as the peak of a deteriorated relationship the Mavi Marmara incident — and characterizing the same as Turkish provocation, not an NGO activity — Yaalon said, “We should not delude ourselves, but we have a prosperous economy” [in common] and “trade between the two” [goes on] “without any illusions.”

Israel’s Relationship With Russia

“Very different from the Cold War,” Yaalon said of Israel’s relationship with Russia.  “It’s not against us” even though, “we are not happy with Russian activity in the region, but we may comment.”

According to Yaalon, Russia’s main consideration is the “superpower game with the U.S.” and “Israel is not the main consideration.”

Given that context, weapons systems contracts or deliveries like those involving the S-300 (anti-aircraft) and 9M133 Kornet become political cards for negotiating other issues.

Additional Reference

Eichner, Itamar.  “Israel claims Russian missile hit school bus.”  YNet News, April 11, 2011.

Gedalyahu, Tzvi Ben.  “Iran Producing Deadly anti-Tank ‘Kornet’ Missle.”  Arutz Sheva,  July 10, 2012.

The Clarion Project.  “Alawite Massacres of Sunnis Reported in Syrian Coastal Towns.”  May 9, 2013.

UPI.  “Signs are Hezbollah, Iran ‘step up foreign plots’.  May 31, 2013.

Yaalon, Moshe.  “Israel’s Security Policy in a Changing Middle East.”  June 14, 2013.