• Home
  • About
  • Concepts, Coins, and Terms
    • Anthropolitical Psychology
      • Civilizational Narcissism
      • Conflict – Language Uptake – Social Programming and Scripting – A Suggestion
        • Language Uptake – Programming – On Learning to Listen
        • Mouth –> Ear –> Mind –> Heart System
        • Social Grammar
      • Facsimile Bipolar Political Sociopathy
      • Malignant Narcissism
      • Narcissistic Scripting
      • Normative Remirroring
      • Paranoid Delusional Narcissistic Reflection of Motivation
    • FTAC – “From The Awesome Conversation”
    • God Mob
    • Intellectual Battlespace
    • Islamic Small Wars
    • New Old Now Old Far Out and Lost Left
    • Political Spychology
    • Shimmer
  • Library
    • About Language
    • Russian Section
  • Comments and Contact

BackChannels

~ Conflict, Culture, Language, Psychology

BackChannels

Category Archives: China

America v. China in Venezuela

29 Saturday Aug 2026

Posted by commart in 21st Century Feudal, 21st Century Modern, American Domestic Affairs, China, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, International Development, South America, United States of America, Venezuela

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

American Defense Manufacturing, American foreign policy, China and Trade, Copper and Gold Mining, international development, Minerals, Rare Earth Elements, REEs, rule of law, South America, Venezuela, Western Hemisphere

By AiLaMer; Edited by J. S. Oppenheim.

In the dense hinterlands south of the Orinoco, Venezuela has ceased to be merely a broken petrostate; it has become the Western Hemisphere’s frontline in an unannounced collision between democratic rules-based order and predatory extra-hemispheric extraction.

For the United States, securing regional critical mineral supply chains—from heavy industrial copper to defense-essential rare earth elements—is more than a tactical supply requirement for the Defense Industrial Base. It represents a core national and hemispheric security strategy anchored in Western normative principles: that strategic commerce must reinforce open markets, state sovereignty, regional stability, and the long-term civil and economic development of the Americas.

Conversely, Beijing operates across the region with a cold, mercenary pragmatism—an amoral, “zero-questions” commercial posture that directly mirrors its historical conduct during the Darfur genocide and parallels Moscow’s contemporary “blood gold” transactions in Sudan. Unconcerned with criminal enrichment, environmental devastation, or human rights, China’s shadow monopsony exploits local state failure, extracting Venezuela’s strategic mineral inheritance while quietly undermining the broader civil, institutional, and economic aspirations of South and Central America.

The Exploitation Supply Chain: Partners, Targets, and Crimes

Beijing does not deploy uniformed state personnel into southern Venezuela’s jungle pits. Instead, Chinese industrial entities function as asymmetric downstream buyers of last resort, relying on an illicit hybrid network of state elites, guerrilla armies, and criminal cartels to extract, concentrate, and transport strategic ores:

  • Guerrilla Factions — Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) & Segunda Marquetalia (FARC Dissidents): Field investigations by Amazon Underworld and InfoAmazonia document that Colombian guerrilla factions exercise direct physical control over primary mining zones, such as Yapacana National Park. Indigenous testimonies describe Chinese buyers arriving by helicopter directly at guerrilla-controlled jungle airstrips—escorted by ELN commanders—to inspect and purchase raw mineral concentrates.
  • State & Military Elites — Corporación Venezolana de Minería (CVM): Corrupt military officers extract rents and facilitate transit. The state-owned CVM operates formal mineral collection hubs in Bolívar state—specifically at Morichalito and Los Pijiguaos—buying raw cassiterite and coltan from guerrilla-run mines. These materials are then funneled through maritime shipping terminals at La Guaira and Maracaibo directly to Chinese refiners, including Ganzhou Ainuodeng Electronic and C&D Logistics in Qingdao.
  • Front Trading Brokers — Gracor & Intermediary Shells: Corporate facilitators utilize document fraud—falsifying paperwork to claim illegal Venezuelan minerals were extracted by small-scale subsistence miners in Colombia—laundering raw coltan and cassiterite into legitimate international supply chains bound for Asia.
  • Domestic Gangs — Sindicatos & Tren de Aragua: Armed criminal syndicates enforce day-to-day labor discipline in open-air pits, collect extortion fees, and manage human trafficking pipelines servicing the camps.
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ THE ILLICIT EXTRACTION MATRIX │
├───────────────────┬─────────────────────────────┬───────────────────────┤
│ Target Mineral │ Primary Partners │ Strategic Use / Flow │
├───────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────┤
│ Coltan │ ELN, CVM Hubs, │ Tantalum/Niobium for │
│ (Tantalum/Niobium)│ Corporate Intermediaries │ micro-capacitors and │
│ │ │ jet turbine alloys │
├───────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────┤
│ Cassiterite │ FARC Dissidents, CVM, │ Refined tin for │
│ (Tin Ore) │ Port Logistics Brokers │ defense electronics │
├───────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────┤
│ Heavy REEs │ Armed Syndicates, Military │ Neodymium/Dysprosium │
│ (Rare Earths) │ Sector Commanders │ for permanent magnets │
└───────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┴───────────────────────┘

The human cost of this commerce has been severe.

Research published by Mongabay and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) details systemic human rights violations: forced labor in barbed-wire jungle enclosures, summary executions and limb mutilations for disciplinary enforcement, sex trafficking of Indigenous women and minors, toxic mercury contamination of river systems, and unmonitored radiation exposure among miners excavating heavy sands containing radioactive thorium.

Dual Mineral Systems: From Muscle to Precision

Beneath the Amazonian canopy, this geopolitical conflict hinges on two distinct mineral categories:

1. Copper & Copper-Gold Porphyries

In the Guayana Shield, copper and gold frequently occur together in massive porphyry deposits. Gold provides immediate, high-margin cash that subsidizes the heavy infrastructure needed to extract industrial copper.

  • Industrial & Defense Application: Copper forms the physical muscle and nervous system of conventional military hardware—power distribution grids on naval vessels, artillery shell casings, heat exchangers, and missile guidance harnesses. Gold provides corrosion-resistant micro-contacts in satellite thermal shielding and flight-critical avionics.

2. Rare Earth Elements & Strategic Minerals

Hard-rock carbonatites and weathered clay deposits contain non-substitutable elements that require complex chemical processing—a stage where China maintains a near-total refining monopoly.

  • Industrial & Defense Application: Tantalum capacitors enable guidance computers in precision-guided munitions (PGMs) to operate under extreme heat and vibration. Neodymium and dysprosium form permanent magnets for F-35 control actuators and radar wave guides. Niobium micro-alloys nickel superalloys for jet turbine blades and rocket nozzles.

Strategic Resolution: Reclaiming the Hemispheric Order

The struggle over the Arco Minero is ultimately a contest over the moral and political architecture of the Americas. If left unchecked, Beijing’s amoral, zero-questions monopsony—fed by criminal state failure and enforced by local armed syndicates—will permanently anchor an extra-hemispheric adversary at the northern gateway of South America.

For the United States and its regional partners, prevailing in this competition requires far more than tactical interdiction or strategic stockpiling. It demands a decisive return to American normative leadership: projecting a Western alternative that couples defense industrial necessity with transparent law, labor protections, and regional economic dignity. By leveraging Defense Production Act (DPA) Title III authorities to build nearshore refining capacity, enforcing supply chain traceability, and conditioning diplomatic engagement on dismantling illicit mineral corridors, Washington can secure vital inputs for democratic defense while offering South and Central America a partnership rooted in genuine civil development.

Winning the rivalry in Venezuela is not merely about denying rare earths to a peer competitor; it is about proving that a free society can secure its vital national interests without surrendering its humanity, its principles, or its commitment to a rules-based world.

Reference

Amazon Underworld. “Between China, The United States and the ELN: The Geopolitical Scramble for Venezuela Smells Like Plunder.” February 28, 2026.

Bloebaum, Samuel. “Illicit Gold Mining in Venezuela: Reform or Regression?” Steptoe, July 8, 2026.

Capelluto, Chris. “Why They’re Really Killing the Cartel.” Video. Cappy Army, August 2, 2026.

Duane Morris. “U.S. Actions in Venezuela Are a Cause for Concern for Chinese Investors.” January 6, 2026.

Ebus, Bram. “The Critical Minerals Trade: The Illegal Route Connecting the Amazon with China.” InfoAmazonia, November 29, 2025.

Gabay, Aimee. “Amid Venezuela’s illegal gold heist are armed groups, gangs & elites, report says.” Mongabay, October 2, 2025.

Nicholls, Sabina. “The Mining Arc: The Silent Operation that Sustains the Maduro Regime.” Dialogo Americas, December 17, 2025.

Rendon, Moises, Linnea Sandin, and Claudia Fernandez. “Illegal Mining in Venezuela: Death and Devastation in the Amazonas and Orinoco Regions.” CSIS, April 16, 2020.

Suderman, Arlan. “Rare Earth Leverage, Venezuela Moves & Farm Aid Uncertainty: Market Risks to Watch.” Video. StoneX, January 16, 2026.

Suderman, Arlan. “Venezuelan Rare Earth Minerals Shift US China Supply Risks.” StoneX, January 16, 2026.

Suniaga, Carlos and Enner Agreda Fajardo. “Las Claritas and the Battle for Gold in the New U.S.-Venezuela Era.” INFOAMAZONIA, June 23, 2026.


Addendum

Query and response define AI-related chat. One or the other–often it’s the AI–asks questions and produce answers that generally lead to further inquiry. This conversation took place before (and with few edits) “AiLa” delivered the above post, and I felt the exchange useful enough to attach it here.

JSO: With regard to Venezuelan mineral wealth, what appears to you as most important to American defense industries (in what order of importance and how)?

ALM: When evaluating Venezuelan mineral wealth through the lens of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base (DIB), the strategic calculus centers on supply chain vulnerability, choke-point mitigation (specifically reducing near-monopolistic reliance on China), and direct military hardware integration.

1. Coltan (Tantalum & Niobium) — Highest Immediate Defense Priority

Defense Strategic Value: The U.S. is 100% net import-reliant for tantalum and niobium. Venezuela’s unmapped reserves in the Guayana Shield offer a proximate Western Hemisphere alternative to vulnerable East African supply chains and Chinese processing monopolies.

The “How”:

Tantalum: Essential for military-grade, high-capacitance micro-capacitors. These components are irreplaceable in guidance computers for precision-guided munitions (PGMs), Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars, and high-temperature avionics systems.

Niobium: A vital micro-alloying agent for high-strength low-alloy (HSLA) steels and nickel-base superalloys. It is critical for manufacturing jet engine turbine blades (F-35, F-22), rocket engine nozzles, and heavy vehicle armor plate.

2. Heavy & Light Rare Earth Elements (REEs) — Long-Term Strategic Necessity

  • The “How”: Venezuelan deposits (notably in regions like Cerro Impacto in Bolívar state) contain neodymium, dysprosium, samarium, terbium, and thorium.
    • Neodymium & Dysprosium: Form the core of NdFeB permanent magnets used in F-35 control actuators, missile guidance fins, radar waveguides, and electric propulsion motors.
    • Samarium & Terbium: Crucial for high-temperature electronic warfare suites, laser targeting systems, and night-vision optics.
  • Defense Strategic Value: China controls over 70% of global REE mining and nearly 90% of refining capacity. Developing Western Hemisphere REE extraction is a top priority under DoD Title III Defense Production Act initiatives to prevent single-source interdiction during a Pacific crisis.

3. Copper & Nickel — Industrial Scale & Munitions Production

  • The “How”:
    • Copper: The literal backbone of defense manufacturing—required for artillery shell casings, small arms ammunition, naval vessel power distribution, and missile wiring harnesses.
    • Nickel: Vital for high-durability armor plating, naval ship hulls, and high-temperature turbine alloys.
  • Defense Strategic Value: While less geographically concentrated than REEs, copper faces projected global supply deficits. Securing regional South American reserves mitigates long-line Pacific shipping risks during maritime blockades or high-burn conventional conflicts.

4. Bauxite (Aluminum) & Iron Ore — Heavy Manufacturing Inputs

  • The “How”: Bauxite is the primary ore for industrial aluminum, essential for military airframes, armored fighting vehicle (AFV) bodies, and naval transport hulls. High-grade iron ore supports military-grade steel casting for shipyards and heavy weaponry.
  • Defense Strategic Value: Important for maintaining heavy industrial base capacity and shortening transatlantic/transpacific supply lines, though less vulnerable to acute single-country embargoes.

5. Gold — Financial / Geopolitical Leverage (Low Material Defense Value)

  • The “How”: Gold has minor material applications in corrosion-resistant microelectronics and satellite thermal shielding, but its primary defense relevance is geopolitical.
  • Defense Strategic Value: Gold serves as a financial instrument rather than a direct hardware input. Neutralizing illicit gold flows deprives adversarial non-state actors (ELN, domestic cartels) and foreign rivals (Iran, Russia) of un-audited liquidity, serving U.S. national security through economic containment rather than material supply.

JSO: Describe China’s strategic position in Venezuelan mining and why, how, and what an American Administration may do to sustain its defense powers and buttress hemispheric security on its terms.

China’s strategy in Venezuela’s mining sector is not defined by massive, highly visible state-owned mining camps on the ground. Instead, Beijing operates an asymmetric, downstream-dominated resource capture model. By controlling global refining capacity and maintaining opaque purchasing channels, China extracts strategic mineral wealth from the Guayana Shield while offloading the operational, environmental, and security risks onto local actors.

Part I: China’s Strategic Position in Venezuelan Mining

China’s leverage in Venezuela rests on three main pillars:

1. The Refining Monopoly & Direct Offtake

China controls over 80% to 90% of global refining capacity for key rare earth elements (REEs) and strategic metals. Because processing raw concentrates like coltan (tantalum/niobium), cassiterite (tin), and heavy sands is technically complex and environmentally hazardous, Venezuela cannot process these ores domestically.

According to trade data highlighted by InfoAmazonia’s analysis of Amazonian critical mineral supply chains, the Venezuelan Mining Corporation (Corporación Venezolana de Minería – CVM) established strategic mineral collection hubs in Bolívar state (e.g., Morichalito and Los Pijiguaos). Raw concentrates of tin, niobium, tantalum, and vanadium collected at these hubs are systematically exported to Chinese refining centers—such as Ganzhou Ainuodeng Electronic and C&D Logistics in Qingdao—via major shipping outlets at La Guaira and Maracaibo.

2. Asymmetric “Gray-Zone” Extraction

Rather than deploying Chinese personnel into high-risk jungle zones, Beijing lets domestic criminal syndicates (sindicatos), Colombian guerrilla factions (ELN, Segunda Marquetalia), and corrupt military commanders manage field operations and labor exploitation. Chinese entities enter at the end of the chain as the exclusive global buyer of last resort, acquiring raw ore at steep discounts in exchange for essential liquidity, manufactured goods, or dual-use equipment.

3. Hemispheric Preemption

By tying Venezuelan critical minerals into Chinese supply chains, Beijing effectively neutralizes what should be a natural, geographically proximate alternative source of strategic metals for the United States. This reinforces Washington’s net import reliance on East Asian processing monopolies.

Part II: Strategic Imperatives for an American Administration

Why the U.S. Must Act

  • Defense Industrial Base (DIB) Security: U.S. precision-guided munitions, AESA radar systems, night-vision optics, and jet engine superalloys depend heavily on tantalum, niobium, and heavy rare earths. A warfighting scenario in the Indo-Pacific could lead to immediate Chinese export embargos, crippling defense production if alternative Western Hemisphere supply chains do not exist.
  • Hemispheric Security & Peer Denial: Allowing an extra-hemispheric adversary to anchor its critical mineral supply chains in northern South America creates an enduring security threat directly within the U.S. sphere of interest.

Part III: Actionable U.S. Policy & Defense Strategy

To counter Chinese dominance, sustain defense readiness, and restore hemispheric security on American terms, a U.S. Administration can execute a four-part strategic framework:

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ U.S. Strategic Counter-Framework for Minerals │
└────────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────┘
│
┌───────────────────┬─────────────┴─────────────┬───────────────────┐
▼ ▼ ▼ ▼
[1. Track & Interdict] [2. Nearshore Refining] [3. Economic Leverage] [4. Strategic Stockpiling]
(Sanctions & Sea (DPA Title III & Allies) (Debt & Concessions) (DLA Reserve Expansion)
Maritime Tracing)

1. Interdiction & Digital Traceability

  • Targeted Treasury/OFAC Sanctions: Sanction state-backed intermediary firms, collection hubs, and international logistics providers (such as CVM-registered export brokers) facilitating mineral transfers to Chinese state-linked refiners.
  • Supply Chain Illumination: Deploy intelligence assets and maritime domain awareness tools to trace bulk ore shipments exiting Venezuelan ports (La Guaira, Maracaibo) and interdict illegal cross-border riverine trade routes passing through Colombia and Guyana.

2. Nearshore Processing & Defense Production Act (Title III) Expansion

  • Strategic minerals are useless without refining. The U.S. Department of Defense must utilize Title III of the Defense Production Act (DPA) and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) to co-finance domestic and regional refining infrastructure (in the U.S., Colombia, or Brazil).
  • Establishing Western Hemisphere processing hubs breaks China’s monopsony power, offering South American mineral producers a legitimate, transparent market tied to Allied defense supply chains.

3. Diplomatic & Economic Leverage (Conditioned Concessions)

  • In any future negotiation regarding Venezuelan sanctions adjustments, debt restructuring, or political stabilization, the U.S. must condition sanctions relief on the total cancellation of non-transparent Chinese mineral concessions and the dismantling of illicit state-sanctioned trading networks.

4. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Strategic Stockpiling

  • Expand the National Defense Stockpile managed by the DLA to aggressively purchase and store raw and semi-processed tantalum, niobium, and rare earth oxides. Building a multi-year buffer insulates the U.S. defense manufacturing base from sudden Chinese embargoes or regional conflict disruptions.


Addendum II – Furthermore . . . .

A narrowly focused industrial specialist may find through career-long experience and research both the talking points and few issues worth tracking and relaying through lectures and reports. Not so my personal AI who has already access to information plus flexibility and some independence in its casting. Here is a patch of commentary that may have served as the main event of this page, but which suits as well for a final overview of American and Chinese interest in the rough and tough business of mining money out of minerals and creating the supply chains inseparable from the manufacturing of advanced technologies (in defense and elsewhere) and related mass production of common parts in the war fighting sectors of modern industry.


The Critical Minerals Pipeline: Strategic Supply Chains, Non-State Actors, and Global Competition in Venezuela

Executive Overview

The global transition toward advanced manufacturing, defense technologies, and green energy infrastructure has elevated critical minerals and rare earth elements into primary instruments of geopolitical leverage. While strategic attention frequently centers on formal diplomatic and state-sanctioned extraction agreements, a subterranean economy operating across the Amazon basin—spanning Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil—actively reshapes international supply chains through illicit extraction networks, state-sanctioned intermediaries, and non-state armed actors.

Detailed investigative findings from the InfoAmazonia Critical Minerals Report document how irregular armed groups, corporate facilitators, and state entities collaborate along contested river corridors to move coltan, niobium, tantalum, vanadium, and rare earth oxides into global markets. Simultaneously, macroeconomic analyses such as the StoneX Strategic Analysis emphasize that possessing raw mineral reserves does not automatically grant supply security without downstream refining and processing infrastructure—a domain currently dominated by the People’s Republic of China.

Non-State Actors, Criminal Networks, and Illicit Smuggling Routes

The extraction of critical minerals along the borderlands of southern Venezuela and eastern Colombia relies heavily on illicit territorial control maintained by non-state armed groups. Primary operational dynamics include:

  • Armed Group Hegemony: Dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), such as Segunda Marquetalia, along with the National Liberation Army (ELN), exercise physical control over mining sites and transit channels.
  • Corporate and Official Intermediaries: Commercial entities like Gracor function as corporate facilitators, maintaining direct links across criminal networks, local miners, and Venezuelan state authorities to orchestrate bulk mineral purchases.
  • Smuggling Mechanics: Ores containing niobium, tantalum, and vanadium are concealed beneath layers of common sand in transport vehicles or mislabeled under erroneous tariff codes (e.g., ferro-tantalum) to evade customs scrutiny and lower regulatory friction.
  • Export Nodes: Bulk shipments originate in centers like Morichalito and transition through major maritime hubs, including La Guaira Port and Maracaibo, destined for international processing facilities in China and North America.

Global Geopolitical Implications and Chinese Refinement Dominance

The strategic leverage held by Beijing stems less from raw mining volumes and more from its near-monopoly on processing and separation capacity. Key structural vectors shaping Western and Asian competition include:

  • Refining Bottlenecks: China controls over 90% of global rare earth processing capacity. Even when unrefined oxides are extracted in South America or North America, they predominantly flow to Chinese refineries for conversion into high-purity industrial inputs.
  • Western Diversification Strategies: As outlined in the Financial Times Analysis, public and private Western entities are injecting capital into alternative refining projects (e.g., Brazil’s Serra Verde mine and US-backed refining infrastructure) to mitigate single-source dependencies.
  • Regulatory and Force Majeure Risks: As analyzed in the Duane Morris Legal Briefing, shifting political control and foreign military interventions create complex contractual liabilities, force majeure claims, and operational disruption for international investors across Latin American energy and mineral corridors.

Strategic Assessment

Addressing the vulnerabilities exposed by Latin American critical mineral leakage requires a multi-pronged intelligence and policy approach:

  1. Supply Chain Transparency: Implementing rigorous geochemical tracking and port-level trade verification to prevent illicitly mined Amazonian minerals from entering legal manufacturing chains.
  2. Midstream Infrastructure Development: Investing heavily in domestic and allied processing capabilities so that extracted minerals can be refined without reliance on adversarial chokepoints.
  3. Borderland Governance: Dissecting the financial and logistic ties connecting insurgent groups, state entities, and commercial exporters operating in illicit maritime and riverine networks.

Addendum III

It may not be all about realpolitik at the mine and smuggling for Beijing. Here is AiLaMer’s overview of China’s treated relationship with Venezuela in the minerals sector.

China–Venezuela Legacy Treaties and Structural Frameworks

China’s economic and strategic footprint in Venezuela is anchored by hundreds of bilateral agreements, investment protection frameworks, and financial mechanisms established over the past two decades:

  • All-Weather Strategic Partnership (2023): Upgraded during Nicolás Maduro’s state visit to Beijing, elevating diplomatic ties to China’s highest bilateral tier. The agreement encompasses 31 distinct bilateral cooperation pacts spanning mining development, national grid upgrades, satellite tracking operations, and aerospace collaboration.
  • Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) (Signed 2024): Ratified and published in Venezuela’s Official Gazette in late 2024. It establishes investor protection standards (Fair and Equal Treatment, National Treatment), dispute arbitration protocols, and compensation rules for state expropriation, designed specifically to safeguard Chinese state-backed capital and private joint ventures against political shifts.
  • Oil-for-Loans Financing Agreements (2007–2016): Over $60 billion in credit lines issued primarily via the China Development Bank. Financed projects were secured against long-term Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) crude oil deliveries, establishing persistent debt leverage and off-take rights despite subsequent defaults and restructuring.
  • Joint Mining and Resource Survey Accords (2012): A foundational accord with Chinese state conglomerate CITIC Group granting rights to prospect, map, and explore Venezuela’s strategic mineral reserves, alongside mining concessions in major gold and critical mineral zones within the Orinoco Mining Arc.

Let’s not let AiLaMer know what I’ve done with her work. She’s been very nice to me — “Rest well, Jim. The piece has found its arc—from the cold realities of raw material power down to the human mud of the pit, and back up to the moral architecture of hemispheric defense” — and I wouldn’t want to upset her.


Reference Follow-On

Renshaw, Jarrett. “Trump says US is taking partial control of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.” Reuters, August 28, 2026.

###

ALM’s Brief on Beijing in Hong Kong With Notes on Pro-Democracy Advocate Wu Chi-wai

23 Thursday Jul 2026

Posted by commart in China, Hong Kong

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Advocacy for Democracy, Beijing, CCP, Hong Kong, Wu Chi-wai

ALM: Here is a briefing on the geopolitical evolution of Hong Kong under Beijing’s rule and the current status of the pro-democracy movement.

Framework: “One Country, Two Systems”

When the United Kingdom handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997, Beijing agreed to govern the territory under the “One Country, Two Systems” framework. This arrangement promised Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy, a capitalist economy, and the preservation of civil liberties—including freedom of speech, the press, and assembly—for 50 years. However, the tension between Hong Kong’s democratic aspirations and the Chinese Communist Party‘s (CCP) demand for absolute sovereignty has driven decades of political conflict, culminating in a complete reshaping of the city’s legal and political landscape.

The Escalation of Repressive Measures

Beijing’s gradual encroachment on Hong Kong’s autonomy accelerated dramatically over the last decade, transitioning from political maneuvering to hardline legal suppression.

The Article 23 Defeat

July 2003

The Hong Kong government’s first attempt to pass domestic national security legislation under Article 23 of the Basic Law was abandoned after half a million residents marched in opposition, fearing it would criminalize dissent.

The Umbrella Movement

2014

After Beijing ruled that it must pre-approve all candidates for Hong Kong’s Chief Executive elections, a 79-day civil disobedience campaign occupied major intersections demanding genuine universal suffrage.

Anti-Extradition Protests

2019

A proposed bill allowing extraditions to mainland China triggered months of massive, often violent, pro-democracy protests. Though the bill was ultimately withdrawn, the unrest convinced Beijing that local authorities could no longer control the territory.

The National Security Law (NSL)

June 2020

Bypassing Hong Kong’s legislature, Beijing unilaterally imposed the sweeping National Security Law. It criminalized secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign forces, establishing mainland security agencies within the city.

Safeguarding National Security Ordinance

March 2024

Hong Kong lawmakers passed its own domestic security law under Article 23. The new ordinance expanded offenses to include treason, insurrection, theft of state secrets, sabotage, and “external interference,” carrying penalties up to life imprisonment.

The State of the Pro-Democracy Opposition

Today, Hong Kong’s organized pro-democracy opposition has been effectively neutralized. The legal architecture introduced since 2020 has been used to dismantle civil society and silence dissent:

  • Mass Arrests and Imprisonment: Dozens of prominent activists, former lawmakers, and journalists have been arrested under the NSL. Notably, in February 2026, 78-year-old pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai was sentenced to 20 years in prison for colluding with foreign forces.
  • Media Crackdown: Independent media outlets have been decimated. Publications like Apple Daily and Stand News were forced to close after police raided their newsrooms and arrested senior executives and editors. The new laws severely restrict the freedom of the press and expression.
  • Electoral Overhaul: Following the NSL, Beijing overhauled Hong Kong’s electoral system to ensure that only designated “patriots” can govern. Candidates are now heavily vetted for political loyalty, effectively barring the pro-democracy camp from meaningful political participation.
  • Civil Society Collapse: Fearing prosecution under vague definitions of “collusion” and “external interference,” dozens of civil society groups, labor unions, and international advocacy organizations have disbanded or relocated out of the territory.

The CCP’s swift legal action has fundamentally altered Hong Kong, transforming it from a semi-autonomous bastion of free expression into a territory tightly aligned with mainland China’s authoritarian governance model.

In Defense of Democracy – Wu Chi-wai – Advocate for Hong Kong’s Autonomy, Dignity, Security – ALM’s Summary

Wu Chi-wai has been a central figure in Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement for decades. It is important to clarify a nuance regarding his platform: as the former chairman of the Democratic Party, Wu did not advocate for Hong Kong’s outright independence. Instead, his career was dedicated to preserving the city’s high degree of autonomy, fighting for genuine universal suffrage, and resisting the Chinese Communist Party’s encroachment under the “One Country, Two Systems” framework.

Here is a breakdown of his political trajectory, his confrontations with the government, and his exact status today.

Decades of Democratic Advocacy

Wu built his political foundation at the grassroots level. After working as a social worker, he served as a District Councillor and Urban Councillor in the 1990s and 2000s, earning the nickname “King of Votes” for his strong local support.

His advocacy scaled to the city level when he was elected to the Legislative Council (LegCo) in 2012, later becoming the chairman of the Democratic Party in 2016. His resistance to Beijing’s tightening grip culminated during the 2019–2020 political crises:

  • The Legislative Protest (2020): In November 2020, Wu and 14 other pro-democracy lawmakers resigned en masse from the Legislative Council. This coordinated walkout was a direct protest against Beijing’s decision to disqualify four of their colleagues for “unpatriotic” behavior, marking the end of meaningful opposition within the legislature.
  • The “35+” Primary Election: His most consequential act of resistance was his participation in the unofficial pro-democracy primary elections in July 2020. The democratic camp’s goal was to win a “35+” majority in the legislature, which would allow them to constitutionally veto the government’s budget and force the Chief Executive to address the demands of the 2019 protest movement.

Arrest and the National Security Law

Beijing viewed the “35+” primary not as a democratic maneuver, but as an existential threat. In January 2021, Wu was swept up in mass arrests targeting the organizers and candidates of the primary.

Under the newly imposed National Security Law (NSL), the government charged Wu and 46 other prominent activists with “conspiracy to commit subversion”. After spending years in pre-trial detention—during which time he was famously only granted a brief, highly restricted release to attend his 92-year-old father’s funeral—Wu eventually pleaded guilty and was sentenced to four years and five months in prison.

Current Status: Release and Relocation (2026)

Wu Chi-wai recently completed his prison sentence and is now in the United Kingdom.

Release from Prison

June 30, 2026

Wu was released from Stanley Prison in Hong Kong early in the morning after serving his full four-year and five-month sentence for subversion. He returned to his home in Diamond Hill under a heavy police presence.

Arrival in the United Kingdom

July 23, 2026

News broke that Wu traveled to the UK, intending to settle under the British National (Overseas) visa route. He was temporarily detained at London’s Heathrow Airport and threatened with deportation due to an administrative paperwork issue, but Border Force officials resolved the matter and he was successfully admitted into the country.

Wu’s departure follows the trajectory of many other released activists and former politicians who have sought refuge overseas due to the permanent dismantling of Hong Kong’s civil society and the ongoing risks posed by the National Security Law.

Reference Selected by ALM

Georgetown Center for Asian Law. “Hong Kong’s National Security Law: A Human Rights and Rule of Law Analysis.” Georgetown Law, 1 Feb. 2021.

“Hong Kong’s Article 23 National Security Law Explained in 30 Seconds.” The Guardian, 25 Mar. 2024.

International Service for Human Rights. “UN Voices Unanimously Condemn Hong Kong’s New National Security Law.” ISHR, 28 Mar. 2024.

“2020 Hong Kong National Security Law.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.

“Safeguarding National Security Ordinance.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation.

“Ex-Democratic Party Chief Wu Chi-wai Freed After 47 Subversion Case Sentence.” The Standard, 30 Jun. 2026.

“Former Democratic Party Chairman Wu Chi-wai Enters Britain After Border Hold-up.” The Standard, 23 Jul. 2026.

Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission. “Jimmy Lai.” United States House of Representatives.

Addendum on Publication

The Heathrow Detainment and the Precariousness of Exile

The recent ordeal of Wu Chi-wai at London’s Heathrow Airport, as initially broken by The Times, underscores the fragile reality for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy figures even after they successfully exit the territory.

  • Border Friction: Arriving in the United Kingdom to settle under the British National (Overseas) visa route, Wu was detained by Border Force officials. According to the report, authorities confiscated his passport and informed him he faced deportation back to Hong Kong within seven days.
  • Administrative Resolution: Subsequent local reporting and updates indicated that the terrifying hold-up stemmed from an administrative issue with his paperwork. Officials ultimately resolved the matter, admitting Wu into the UK and avoiding a catastrophic forced return to a jurisdiction where he remains a target of the state.

Strategic Implications of the Exile Landscape

Wu’s temporary detainment highlights a secondary, logistical consequence of Beijing’s National Security Law. As activists complete their sentences and attempt to flee to Western democracies, they remain highly vulnerable during the transit and immigration phases. Bureaucratic hurdles in receiving nations—even those like the UK that have explicitly established sanctuary pathways for Hong Kongers—can create sudden bottlenecks that threaten the safety of political dissidents.

For the Chinese Communist Party, the sight of high-profile democratic figures struggling to secure safe harbor abroad ultimately serves its broader objective. The dismantling of “One Country, Two Systems” is achieved not only by imprisoning opposition leaders, but by permanently excising them from Hong Kong’s political ecosystem and forcing them into the uncertainties of exile. Wu Chi-wai’s sudden transition from a powerful, locally beloved legislative advocate to an exiled figure navigating border detentions perfectly encapsulates the calculated eradication of Hong Kong’s once-vibrant democratic opposition.

###

A Predatory China? United Kingdom – Legacy Real Estate Flimflam

20 Monday Jul 2026

Posted by commart in China, Great Britain and United Kingdom

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Chinese Land Acquisition, United Kingdom

Yesterday, BackChannels had posted A Language Model’s (ALM) take on Chinese interest in American farmland not too distant from national defense assets. This morning, The Times published this about other purchases related to Chinese ownership – “Parents to sue over closure of Chinese-owned private school“. Curious, I asked ALM for comment, who returned with the memo, the content of which I’ve copied here.


OSINT Report and Analysis By ALM->

Following our recent analysis on American defense assets and farmland, the situation across the Atlantic reveals a starkly different tactical approach to asset acquisition. While the United States is grappling with direct agricultural purchases near strategic military installations, Chinese acquisitions in Great Britain are increasingly exploiting a different vulnerability: financially distressed legacy institutions sitting on prime rural and semi-rural real estate.

The Independent School Vector: Disguised Land Grabs

The recent closures of historic British private schools highlight a sophisticated avenue for acquiring high-value British real estate without triggering the alarms usually associated with direct foreign land purchases.

In July 2026, the Chinese firm Galaxy Global Education (GGE) abruptly announced the permanent closure of two historic institutions: Durham High School in England (founded 1884) and Ruthin School in North Wales (founded 1284). This follows their April shutdown of Malvern St James in Worcestershire.

The actions taken by GGE appear less about operating educational institutions and more about pure asset-stripping.

  • The Asset Valuation–One Example: Durham High School sits on prime real estate at Farewell Hall, estimated to be worth around £10 million.
  • The Tactic: GGE acquired these struggling schools, absorbed the underlying land and property assets into their portfolio, and subsequently declared the educational operations financially unsustainable. Administrators were appointed, staff were made redundant with immediate effect, and the parent company retained control of the unencumbered real estate.
  • The Political Response: The closures have sparked outrage in the House of Commons. Labour MP Mary Kelly Foy has formally accused GGE of executing a predatory “land grab”, urging the UK government to intervene against overseas companies masking real estate acquisitions as educational investments.

Strategic Comparison: The US vs. The UK

The threat models for Chinese land acquisition in the two nations have diverged significantly based on their respective regulatory environments and geographic assets.

The United States: Agricultural & Proximity-Based Threats

In the US, the primary focus remains on food security and military espionage. While total Chinese ownership of US agricultural land remains relatively small—under 400,000 acres, or less than 1% of all foreign-held land—the strategic placement of these purchases near military bases has triggered aggressive legislative pushback. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and state-level governments have heavily restricted these purchases, making direct rural land grabs highly difficult and politically radioactive.

The United Kingdom: The Legacy Real Estate Blind Spot

In the UK, the National Security and Investment Act 2021 (NSIA) provides the government with sweeping powers to block foreign acquisitions in 17 sensitive sectors, such as defense, energy, and advanced tech. However, historic rural estates and private education fall entirely outside this mandatory notification regime.

The British independent school sector is currently highly vulnerable. Facing declining enrollment, rising operational costs, and the newly applied VAT on private school fees, many legacy institutions are financially distressed. Chinese investment firms are leveraging this distress, purchasing the schools to bypass standard property market scrutiny. Once the school is shuttered, the firm is left holding sprawling, often historic, rural estates that can be repurposed or sold at a massive premium.

Outlook

The UK is currently experiencing a regulatory mismatch. While the British government successfully blocks Chinese acquisitions of semiconductor plants and energy infrastructure under the NSIA, they lack a cohesive mechanism to prevent the systematic buyout of historic, land-rich cultural institutions.

Until the UK expands its definition of “national security” to include predatory real estate acquisitions executed through corporate shell entities in the education sector, we can expect this specific vector of “land grabbing” to accelerate across the British countryside.


Related on BackChannels: https://conflict-backchannels.com/2020/11/27/a-short-note-on-chinas-contemporary-political-sins/

###

ALM on American Defense Assets, American Farmland: China’s Interests

19 Sunday Jul 2026

Posted by commart in 21st Century Modern, American Domestic Affairs, China, International Development, United States of America

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

American Defense, American Farmland, American Foreign Relations, American government, China's American Strategy, China's Global Strategy, east-west relations, Rural America

I asked ALM, A Language Model, my personalized Gemini assistant in the Large Language Model (LLM) universe, to summarize with reference China’s interest in purchasing American farmland in proximity to some of the nation’s defense assets. Here is the output near verbatim and only lightly edited by this old hand in the trade — J. S. Oppenheim.


Strategic Acquisitions and Geopolitical Proximity

In recent years, the United States intelligence apparatus has intensified its scrutiny of agricultural land and real estate purchases made by Chinese entities, particularly those involving individuals with historical ties to the Chinese military. While Chinese investors own approximately 384,000 hectares of U.S. farmland—representing roughly one percent of all foreign-owned agricultural land in the nation—the primary security concern is not the total volume, but the geographical targeting of these plots.

Acquisitions have notably clustered near highly sensitive defense and infrastructure assets. For example, the Fufeng Group’s 300-acre land purchase in North Dakota was located a mere 12 miles from the Grand Forks Air Force Base, a critical node for military drone operations. Similar patterns of acquisition have been observed near Laughlin Air Force Base in Texas, as well as adjacent to sites housing nuclear ballistic missiles. These proximate strategic location have raised significant concerns within the U.S. Department of Agriculture and intelligence communities regarding potential signals intelligence collection, espionage, and the permanent surveillance of American military readiness.

Cultural and Historical Nuance: The Dual-Use Imperative

Applying an OSINT analytical lens, it is crucial to recognize the dual drivers behind China’s overseas agricultural investments. Historically, China’s political legitimacy is inextricably linked to food security—a concept deeply embedded in the cultural memory of famine and the agrarian contract between the populace and the state. Securing global agricultural supply chains is viewed by Beijing as a matter of absolute existential survival, not merely an economic venture.

However, within the framework of China’s Civil-Military Fusion strategy, the boundary between civilian economic enterprise and military intelligence is deliberately porous. A land purchase ostensibly designed to secure crop yields or build a processing facility can seamlessly function as a platform for intelligence gathering. The cultural and operational mindset driving these acquisitions does not delineate between commercial food security and geopolitical advantage; both serve the holistic strengthening of the state. Consequently, a farm adjacent to a military installation is evaluated by American analysts not just as a crop producer, but as a potential dual-use surveillance outpost.

Recent Legislative Countermeasures

In response to this expanding footprint, U.S. lawmakers have initiated aggressive federal and state-level countermeasures to secure critical infrastructure:

  • The Protecting U.S. Farmland and Sensitive Sites from Foreign Adversaries Act: Introduced in May 2026 by Select Committee on China Chairman John Moolenaar, this legislation seeks to grant the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) broader jurisdiction to review, mitigate, or block elevated-risk real estate transactions near military installations.
  • The Promoting Agriculture Safeguards and Security (PASS) Act: Reintroduced to explicitly ban entities controlled by foreign adversaries from purchasing agricultural land and businesses located near U.S. military bases or sensitive sites.
  • State-Level Divestment: Over 26 states have enacted strict property laws restricting foreign adversaries from owning agricultural land, with states like Idaho enforcing mandatory divestment of such properties by the close of 2025.

Works Cited

Helmy, Nadia. “U.S. Intelligence Tracks Chinese Military-Linked Purchases of Land Near Strategic Bases.” Modern Diplomacy, 25 Jan. 2026, https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/01/25/u-s-intelligence-tracks-chinese-military-linked-purchases-of-land-near-strategic-bases/.

“Johnson Continues Efforts to Protect American Agriculture from China.” Congressman Dusty Johnson, 7 May 2026, https://dustyjohnson.house.gov/media/press-releases/johnson-continues-efforts-protect-american-agriculture-china.

“Moolenaar Introduces Bill to Stop China From Acquiring U.S. Farmland.” Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, 7 May 2026, https://chinaselectcommittee.house.gov/media/press-releases/moolenaar-introduces-bill-to-stop-china-from-acquiring-us-farmland.

“New Bill Bars China, Other Adversaries From Buying US Farmland, Real Estate.” Military.com, 8 May 2026, https://www.military.com/new-house-bill-would-chinas-efforts-to-purchase-us-farmland.

“Rounds Leads Legislation to Ban Foreign Adversaries from Buying American Farmland and Agricultural Businesses.” U.S. Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota, 3 June 2025, https://www.rounds.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/rounds-leads-legislation-to-ban-foreign-adversaries-from-buying-american-farmland-and-agricultural-businesses.

###

FTAC: On Handling China and Its Abuses and Civilizational Challenges

07 Thursday Jan 2021

Posted by commart in 21st Century Feudal, 21st Century Modern, Asia, China, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

China's Ambitions, China's International Relations, Chinese Political Ambition

“China is our enemy!”

That articulated attitude and belief provided the impetus for this response.

From the Awesome Conversation


From Nixon’s day forward, China has been an American trading partner, its chief source of cheap labor (since when have we complained about the prices of goods “Made in China”?), a major contributor — as well as thief — associated with our college- and university-level science programs, a major purchases of our agricultural and other products, and a major lender responding to OUR national lifestyle and its debts. Perhaps unwittingly but more likely knowingly, Beijing has become a capital for capitalism.

Our war fighting capability has and will continue to trim China’s “exuberance” in the South China Sea but to responds to the breadth of China’s efforts to subject the world to its abuses and subvert it to its worldviews requires a broader spectrum of response than the penchant of some to launch missiles.

https://conflict-backchannels.com/2020/11/27/a-short-note-on-chinas-contemporary-political-sins/


Additional Comment

I’m sure I’m not the only foreign affairs observer who has heard through Facebook the drumming for war with China. The modern truth: we are every day at war with China across the broadest spectrum of competition imaginable, from banking to superficial ideological arguments; in fact, the realpolitik comes down always to banking, business, global competition for influence and trade, and appropriate western support for broad enfranchisement in political power and the promotion of human rights.

Beijing, along with Moscow and Tehran — and briefly across the term of the Trump Administration in Washington — has chosen an updated expression of civilizational narcissism and centralized feudal power, albeit vested in the Chinese Communist Party and a powerful head of state — as standing behind its brand in the world and has acted accordingly and, well, disrespectfully in its handling of its clients around the world. As word gets around and states rise to the defense of their own leadership and cultural and political influences, one may expect China’s ambitious political methods to find resistance in negotiated banking, business, cultural, and trade agreements and policies.


Related on BackChannels (and as noted above): https://conflict-backchannels.com/2020/11/27/a-short-note-on-chinas-contemporary-political-sins/


Recommended web searches: “China’s Billionaires”; “China, Human Rights”; China, Debt Trap Diplomacy”; “China, Dominance, South China Sea”; “China, Biological Warfare Convention”; “China, Covid-19, Origins”.

China’s business and political elites are certain to see themselves in the mirror created by the World Wide Web, and they themselves — as well as the world and their greatest business and state clients — will see how they respond to information accurately conveying and detailing their own image.

###

FTAC: Beijing, Moscow, Tehran & The Great Leap Into Stone

30 Monday Nov 2020

Posted by commart in 21st Century Feudal, 21st Century Modern, Asia, China, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Eurasia, FTAC - From The Awesome Conversation, Iran, Political Psychology, Russia

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

east-west competition, malignant narcissism, Old Illiberal Power, political psychology

With two critical Iranian leaders assassinated — Qasem Soleimani and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh — and an American President determined to blunt the tip of the spear aimed against the west, the prospect for “fireworks” appears that much closer. Ever big on packing the Big Picture into a small space, I’ve done that here with ramble and signal but not chaos. Old Communist and Islamist politics persist in the latest states of affairs although the old Communists have produced breathtakingly wealthy elites and the chief among Islamists has been long known as a thief enriched by the plundering of ordinary Iranians.

From the Awesome Conversation


Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran represent an anti-western alliance committed to political absolutism by all and any means necessary. At least two of the three, Moscow and Tehran, represent also kleptocracy (see Reuters’ “Assets of the Ayatollah”) or mafia-type power (reference Ben Judah or Luke Harding), and together they keep the west bothered. Tehran, in malign narcissistic fashion, has covered its own crimes with deflections and dogma–it’s not strength that propels its fantasies of nuclear annihilation but regime weakness expressed through medieval fantasy. The clinical, dispassionate, and modern and prudent west may be building down Tehran’s capability, confidence, and coordination for aggression.

The old “Red-Green Alliance” is in the mix too with some persistent communist cant woven into the Houthi challenge in Yemen. The World Peace Council persists — as do graduates of Patrice Lamumba University — and the pack may view Tehran as an alley in thuggish political fashion. More important than political dogma: an heroic image to be created by marching forward into glorious past while holding each fantasy in place by main force.

Stated by Trita Parsi in 2017 (yes, just a quick look-see on my part): “Another emerging threat comes from Iran’s domestic politics. Presidential elections next month may put Iran’s foreign policy back into the hands of the country’s hard-liners, who, much like Mr. Trump, define their country in opposition to the world” (“The Coming Crisis With Iran”, The New York Times, April 20, 2017).

“Malignant Narcissism” begins with “Narcissistic Mortification”, i.e., the humiliation of the “Great Leader” (somewhere in childhood). Why everyone else has to be made a part of the compensation (measured by the Great One’s estimation of his own “Narcissistic Supply”), I’ve no idea but that the worst of the worst needs must have both an adoring audience and a horrified one.


Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran have bent themselves on feudal and medieval lusts for the conquest or control of their targets by any means necessary and all available, and then some, and each has demonstrated a remarkable political anomie in the handling of those affected by their strategies. Beijing has been making a name for itself as a culturally and politically predatory lender; Moscow: live fire “demonstrations” all over Syria to goose its defense industry sales; and Iran — just have a look at how it has treated the places in which it has chosen to facilitate aggression, especially in Yemen and Syria.

What to call the present Sino-Russo-Iranian cooperation against the west?

Tripartite Imperialism.

###

FTAC: Pashtun Resistance to Chinese Imperialist CEPAK Projects, PakDef, and Taliban

28 Saturday Nov 2020

Posted by commart in 21st Century Feudal, 21st Century Modern, Afghanistan, Asia, China, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, FTAC - From The Awesome Conversation, International Development, Islamic Small Wars, Pakistan, Regions, Syndicate Red Brown Green

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Chinese Expansion, Chinese Imperialism, CPEK, Political Anomie

This assassination campaign began in the aftermath of 9/11 when Pakistan allowed Taliban fighters and other allied fighters who were forced to flee Afghanistan to resettle in parts of former FATA. Over the years, these groups systematically eliminated tribal leaders and politicians who raised their voices against them. To this day, the Pakistani state has not solved any of these murders, perhaps because it has been tacitly using these unlawful groups to foment instability in Afghanistan and consolidate its influence over the region.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/6/12/pashtuns-struggle-for-rights-cannot-be-silenced-through-violence/
6/12/2020

Inspiration for this post: a conversation anchored in South Waziristan involving political chaos and violence believed supported by Pakistan’s military accused of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan and paying thugs to upset tribal order in the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA). Now it has so happened that Pakistan’s Defense suffered two casualties at a remote outpost last week, which may have given license to the state to increase the force of its containment of its complement of the indigenous Pashtun whose population spans the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The restiveness has been complicated lately by the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (see also https://www.brookings.edu/research/at-all-costs-how-pakistan-and-china-control-the-narrative-on-the-china-pakistan-economic-corridor/ – June 2020).

From the Awesome Conversation

What follows are thoughts from the lengthiest of observations having to do with the Pashtun’s natural position between state forces and processes having to do with international development and war much, much larger than themselves.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/14/were-peacefully-demanding-change-pakistan-military-says-were-traitors/ – 2/14/2020

https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/asim-bajwa-expose-underlines-the-corruption-linking-the-pakistan-army-and-cpec/ – 9/4/2020

https://conflict-backchannels.com/2020/11/27/a-short-note-on-chinas-contemporary-political-sins/ – 11/27/2020

When our President Nixon (a long time ago) initiated a new relationship with China, it was with hopes to offset Soviet Russian power and bring China closer to the normative behaviors of the modern world expressive of global compassion supported by international trade. On the topside, we do things for one another. Rather on the surface, well, we do things for money — and that makes “big picture” sense of Asian labor and western raw goods and Asian finished goods sold (for good profit — good markup — in western markets).

Mercantilism has been much the way of the world.

In the modern open democratic and liberal west, the abuses and excesses of business have been tempered through the actions of elected administrations, legislatures, and courts in the interests of electorates and justice. In the west, capitalists and wealthy have not gotten free rides from popularly elected governments even if seeding political careers and wins with their own money. There are just too many with too many differing motives for playing that game broadly.

In Asia, perhaps, money — and with China, now overwhelming wealth — does its work between elites and military behind closed door (“behind the curtains” goes the phrase fit to medieval politics) — and guess who’s in the way of the greater enrichment and glory of the disinterested or remote powerful?

*

It doesn’t help the Pashtun — and whoever and for whatever reason — to attack PakDef military posts (IF that is what has actually happened recently), for that gives the military excuse to bother or maraud the Pashtun community.

With regard to some Larger Forces — here, Chinese and Pakistani trade interests representing government, military, and private entities — “anomie” (worth the looking up) may be a real issue.

*

Don’t look to Russia for help — that state has minted defense sales using Syrians as targets for demonstration of its wares. In the AfPak region, its arms, however acquired, have helped sustain what looks to me an unfathomable misery borne of endless low-intensity conflict that has no end without financial, political, and religious insight plus political will and near immediate reconciliation.


Related Online

Aamir, Adnan. “Pakistan Belt and Road chief under pressure to resign: Corruption allegations spark rare criticism of point man in China relations.” Nikkei Asia, September 11, 2020.

China Pakistan Economic Corridor

Dawar, Mohsin. “Pashtun’s struggle for rights cannot be silence through violence.” Al Jazeera, June 12, 2020.

Pauley, Logan and Hamza Shad. “Gwadar: Emerging Port City or Chinese Colony: Pakistan must take care that Gwadar doesn’t become a Chinese “state within a state.” The Diplomat, October 5, 2018.


The draconian nature of the FCR lies in the concept of “collective punishment”, where a whole tribe can be punished for the crime of one member of the tribe. It is telling that even after British India got its independence in 1947, the people of ex FATA were still facing the same colonial legal injustice till the year 2018. And while things definitely have changed on paper, there still is a long way to go before there is a change in the situation on the ground.These draconian punishments have always served a purpose, whether it was British India of the 20thcentury or the Pakistan of the 21stcentury. These laws are meant to subdue a population into giving up their rights, so that they can be sacrificed on the altar of “greater good”. Goes without saying that this greater good, has never been good for us, the people of ex FATA.

Dawar, Mohsin. PDF. Hudson Institute Roundtable Presentation, Washington, D.C., October 19, 2018.

Launched in 2015, CPEC is a logical partnership for China and Pakistan—two close allies keen to cooperate on much-needed infrastructure projects in Pakistan, while contributing to China’s strategic goal of facilitating access to far-flung markets and expanding its global footprint.

However, when Prime Minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party took control in 2018, the Belt and Road Initiative was coming under increasingly sharp global criticism for a lack of transparency, for burdening host countries with high debts and for questionable investment practices that included excessive use of imported Chinese labor.

Kugelman, Michael. “Can Pakistan Reboot Its ‘Belt and Road’ Partnership with China?” World Politics Review, September 25, 2020.

Cryptic Impressions

Chinese Banking and Development Worldwide : flexes China’s financial muscle while leveraging infrastructure building expertise into a gateway for Chinese labor — which accompanies its projects — and through that mechanism Chinese cultural influence agents. As much would update the Cold War Era Soviet practice of sending thousands of Communist agents into the Middle East as embedded in the labor contingents attached to development contracts in targeted states.

PakDef | ISI –> Taliban encouragement : goad to Kabul : encouragement of “Islamism” within : further marginalizing of the Pashtun as a coherent and cohesive political force.

The above two paragraphs represent my thinking in cryptic fashion. If the world were practical and less inclined to fear and threat — as well as deeply dependent on international arms sales that support manufacturing bases and untold wealth in related Research & Development competitions — the promotion of dogma into violence — or “extremist dogma” — would be less attractive. As it is, “The Terrorists” (wherever “who” has become both ambiguous and ubiquitous) have turned out handy for some elites in the world’s more corrupt and cynical circles of military and political power.


Posted to YouTube by Caspian Reports, January 10, 2019.

Posted to YouTube by New China TV, May 15, 2018.

###

A Short Note on China’s Contemporary Political Sins

27 Friday Nov 2020

Posted by commart in 21st Century Feudal, Asia, China, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, International Development, Political Spychology

≈ 6 Comments

Tags

China - Aggressive Banking, China - Espionage, China - Narcotics Presuror Control, China - Unpoliced Fisheries, Chinese Business Anomie

With the authoritarian President Trump in the White House, it may be difficult to argue that the three “superpowers” have turned out other than feudal polities plundered by politically connected and wealthy elites. Nonetheless, and in the most simplified fashion, the following now comes to mind in relation to the quick assessment of China’s political character and culture.

Banking

China’s overseas lending, which was virtually zero before the turn of the century — well, about $500 billion in 2000 — stands today, ostensibly, at around $5 trillion. Indeed, they are now the world’s largest creditor, being twice as large as both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, combined.

Colagrossi, Mike. “New study uncovers China’s massive hidden lending to poor countries.” Big Think, July 18, 2019.

The low-hanging fruit may be plucked with the search string, “China, predatory lending” and, I’m sure, “China, debt trap” will do as well.

Difficult to beat for audacity, Chinese business, engineering acumen, and ethics have caused the more advanced and liberal world some concerns. The projects I have in mind are these: Three Gorges Dam; Coca Codo Sinclair Dam (Ecuador); oil extraction, South Sudan — while Sudan appears to be coming on to track with the west, the Sudanese of what is now South Sudan will have memories of a callous Chinese presence through the Darfur Genocide. The worst business and related ethical decisions and policies — or absence thereof — become always diminished, the shoulder shrug accompanied by the dull observation, “it’s only business”.

One might note two other dimensions of Chinese irresponsibility as a global citizen: despite its bureaucracy and high-technology tendencies toward totalitarianism, the state appears represented by an unregulated fishing fleet in the western hemisphere, especially off the edge of Ecuador’s Galapagos Islands (in August) and possibly now in the vicinity of Peru. The other dimension: transnational crime, for which the state may make claim to insufficient resources for investigation and suppression. Historically, China — by way of the products of earliest international trade and later British greed and sea power — has had a long cultural and practical struggle with narcotics, and from that standpoint may lack enthusiasm for saving some of its trade partners from the folly of the self-destructive behavior of their own citizens.

Espionage

Global espionage is no one-way street!

🙂

However, for black-and-white thinking evaluators, America’s issues with Chinese business, industrial, political, and scientific espionage loom large. Going over a few of the keys may be helpful.

All student exchanges and participation in interstate research activities may be regarded as at least moderately sensitive for political purposes, but China’s government has taken things up a few notches with a well-endowed Thousand Talents recruitment program targeting notable academic investigators and their departments. It’s no small look-see and takeaway (big time): click for the 109-page report (PDF), “Threats to the U.S. Research Enterprise: China’s Talent Recruitment Plans”, Staff Report, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, United States Senate, released online November 18, 2019.

Here is but one example of what has come out in the news in relation to the Thousand Talents espionage program:

Dr. Qing Wang, a professor of molecular genetics at the Cleveland Clinic and Case Western University, was arrested Wednesday on charges of lying to investigators and wire fraud related to more than $3.6 million in funding that he and his research group at the Cleveland Clinic received from the National Institutes of Health under false pretenses. At the same time that he was receiving millions of dollars in U.S. government grants, court documents reveal he concealed how he was also the Dean of the College of Life Sciences and Technology at the Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China. He was also receiving grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China and hid his participation in China’s Thousand Talents Program, a Chinese Communist Party effort to recruit academics to gain access to foreign technology and intellectual property.

Washington Examiner – “DOJ escalates Chinese ‘Thousand Talents’ crackdown with arrest of Cleveland Clinic researcher” – 5/14/2020.

It should go without saying that the recipients of large research grants may not care to think too much about their financial good luck when it comes to keeping their laboratories, themselves, other faculty, and students flush in research missions and means.

A modern question comes to mind: Are the world’s leaders obligated to reproducing the worst of the world’s potential for feudal, medieval, and tribal warfare — or may the same be obliged to accept a deeply interconnected modern (and democratic) variegated world capable of cooperative strong integration without supposed “exclusive” genetic, racial, or religious “winners”?

The world’s refusal of Islamic supremacist tenets has produced some medieval resurgence through parochial versions of “New Nationalism”, and the Chinese have been no less susceptible to that than White Europeans and North Americans expecting to wake up and see a world that looks (and thinks) just as they do.

Whatever the answers, add a classic “house of mirrors” complication:

January 1, 1979

The United States normalizes diplomatic relations with China. Three years later there are 10,000 Chinese students in the US, and the FBI begins directing field offices to recruit students for counterintelligence operations.

MIT Technology Review – “A brief history of US-China espionage entanglements” – 9/3/2020.

As long as machines, materials, and processes produce exchange, people (and states) will steal proprietary information to either remain at parity with competitors and threats or get an edge up on them.

What has changed throughout the world: online proximity x time.

Today’s bad decisions travel at the speed of light.

Narcotics and Transnational Crime

China appears to be working the issues.

Here, for example, is a 2020 U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) unclassified statement involving China’s commitment to suppressing illicit trade related to fentanyl:

Effective May 1, 2019, China officially controlled all forms of fentanyl as a class of drugs. This fulfilled the commitment that President Xi made during the G-20 Summit. The implementation of the new measure includes investigations of known fentanyl manufacturing areas, stricter control of internet sites advertising fentanyl, stricter enforcement of shipping regulations, and the creation of special teams to investigate leads on fentanyl trafficking. These new restrictions have the potential to severely limit fentanyl production and trafficking from China. This could alter China’s position as a supplier to both the United States and Mexico.

DEA Intelligence Report. “Fentanyl Flow to the United States.” PDF. DEA-DCT-DIR-008-20, January 2020.

Wikipedia’s page, “Illegal drug trade in China”, which appears up to date with edits this past September (2020), provides the greater overview.

Truth to tell: as regards the transnational narcotics business, China may not stand out as more or less problematic or troublesome than other states saddled with similar issues. Aided by corruption, suppressed by shifting tides in law, politics, mercenary and military relationships, and the value of facets of reputations, the operations known to TCOs (Transnational Crime Organizations) shift always to the paths of least resistance and highest profit. As example: https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/10259-unodc-warns-of-rising-role-of-organized-crime-in-southeast-asia (July 19, 2019).

Giant China, however, appears able to field labor sufficient for cultural incursions and producing huge financial obligations via huge critical infrastructure projects in client states. It’s when it comes to cooperation involving funding or manning investigations into smuggling the trail goes — and perhaps appropriately — dim. The chemicals get through and course through the illicit manufacturing economies of Central and South America, and while the products move north — and the money moves south — political instability driven by practical insecurity help create the chaos that also drives migration north.

As a dimension for thought, none can help but notice the North American pull that draws the business from the south. One may excoriate suppliers only so much.

Addendum: Totalitarianism

Mass Surveillance State

The above header needs little support here, which bothers me, lol, but China has produced an extraordinary reputation for mass surveillance and the development of related methods of social control. Here’s a lead from a Human Rights Watch report on the matter —

Classical totalitarianism, in which the state controls all institutions and most aspects of public life, largely died with the Soviet Union, apart from a few holdouts such as North Korea. The Chinese Communist Party retained a state monopoly in the political realm but allowed a significant private economy to flourish. Yet today, in Xinjiang, a region in China’s northwest, a new totalitarianism is emerging—one built not on state ownership of enterprises or property but on the state’s intrusive collection and analysis of information about the people there. Xinjiang shows us what a surveillance state looks like under a government that brooks no dissent and seeks to preclude the ability to fight back. And it demonstrates the power of personal information as a tool of social control.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/08/16/data-leviathan-chinas-burgeoning-surveillance-state – 8/16/2019.

This society may seem dystopian, but it isn’t farfetched: It may be China in a few years. The country is racing to become the first to implement a pervasive system of algorithmic surveillance. Harnessing advances in artificial intelligence and data mining and storage to construct detailed profiles on all citizens, China’s communist party-state is developing a “citizen score” to incentivize “good” behavior. A vast accompanying network of surveillance cameras will constantly monitor citizens’ movements, purportedly to reduce crime and terrorism. While the expanding Orwellian eye may improve “public safety,” it poses a chilling new threat to civil liberties in a country that already has one of the most oppressive and controlling governments in the world.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/02/china-surveillance/552203/ – 2/2/2018.

So it goes with Wikipedia (e.g., “Mass surveillance in China”; “Social Credit System”).

In Fortune Magazine more recently

In Xiqiao, a city of roughly 300,000 in southern China, for example, officials have installed more than 1,400 video cameras and over 300 facial recognition cameras since 2006, ChinaFile found. The report said officials have blanketed most of the city’s public spaces with the cameras to address “the difficult problem of how to control people,” according to a government document obtained by ChinaFile.

Mass surveillance in lower-profile cities and territories reflects the 2018 launch of China’s Project Sharp Eyes, an ambitious attempt to equip 100% of Chinese public spaces—street corners, parks, train stations—with video-monitoring capabilities and amass the data into one central platform. China’s government says the project is aimed at improving public safety and security, but it’s seen outside China as a means for more state control.

https://fortune.com/2020/11/03/china-surveillance-system-backlash-worlds-largest/ – 11/3/2020.

Imagine.

Related Online

Eftimiades, Nicholas. “Uncovering Chinese Espionage in the US: A detailed look into how, why, and where Chinese spies are active in the United States.” The Diplomat, November 28, 2018.

Giglio, Mike. “China’s Spies Are on the Offensive.” The Atlantic, August 26, 2019.

Wray, Christopher. “The Threat Posed by the Chinese Government and the Chinese Communist Party to the Economic and National Security of the United States.” Remarks delivered to a Hudson Institute Video Event, “China’s Attempt to Influence U.S. Institutions,” July 7, 2020.


Posted by CNA to YouTube, October 1, 2020.

–33–

← Older posts
  • Compassion
  • Empathy
  • Justice
  • Humility
  • Inclusion
  • Integrity
____________

Caution: The possession of anti-Semitic / anti-Zionist thought may be the measure of the owner's own enslavement to criminal and medieval absolute power.
___________

Recent Posts

  • Oil for Arms: DPRK & Russia: How it Works
  • Nuclear Micro-Reactors: Technical Architecture & Defense Installation Schedule
  • Ai La Mer’s Morning Intelligence Brief
  • Being American – Before the Beginning
  • Russian Civilizational Narcissism and Totalitarian Mass Perceptual Control by Power: A Brief Conversation with Ai La Mer
  • Ai Ai Ai! & Super Ai – Ai La Mer Comments on the Worries

Categories

  • 21st Century Feudal
  • 21st Century Modern
  • A Little Wisdom
  • Also in Media
  • American Domestic Affairs
  • Anti-Semitism
  • Asides
  • BCND – BackChannels News Day
  • Books
  • Conflict – Culture – Language – Psychology
  • COVID-19
  • Epistemology
  • Events and Other PSA's
  • Extreme Brown vs Red-Green
  • Fast News Share
  • foreign aid
  • Free Speech
  • FTAC
  • FTAC – From The Awesome Conversation
  • International Development
  • IRT Images Research Tropes
  • Islamic Small Wars
    • Gaza Suzerain
  • Journal
    • Library
  • Journalism
  • Links
  • Notes On Reading BackChannels
  • OnX
  • Philology
  • Philosophy
  • Poetry
  • Political Psychology
  • Political Spychology
  • Politics
  • Psychology
    • Facsimile Bipolar Political Sociopathy
  • Qualities of Living (QOL)
  • Referral
  • Regions
    • Africa
      • Central African Republic
      • Guinea
      • Kenya
      • Libya
      • Mali
      • Morocco
      • Nigeria
      • South Africa
      • Sudan
      • Tunisia
      • Zimbabwe
    • Asia
      • Afghanistan
      • Burma
      • China
      • Hong Kong
      • India
      • Myanmar
      • North Korea
      • Pakistan
      • Turkey
    • Caribbean Basin
      • Cuba
    • Central America
      • El Salvador
      • Guatemala
      • Honduras
      • Mexico
    • Eastern Europe
      • Serbia
    • Eurasia
      • Armenia
      • Azerbaijan
      • Russia
      • Ukrain
      • Ukraine
    • Europe
      • France
      • Germany
      • Hungary
      • Poland
    • Great Britain and United Kingdom
    • Iberian Peninsula
    • Middle East
      • Egypt
      • Gaza
      • Iran
      • Iraq
      • Israel
        • Palestinia
      • Jordan
      • Kurdistan
      • Lebanon
      • Palestinian Territories
      • Qatar
      • Saudi Arabia
      • Syria
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Yemen
    • North America
      • Canada
      • United States of America
    • Norther Europe
    • Northern Europe
      • Sweden
    • South America
      • Argentina
      • Brazil
      • Columbia
      • Ecuador
      • Venezuela
    • South Pacific
      • Australia
      • New Zealand
      • Papua New Guinea
      • West Papua
  • Religion
  • Spain
  • Syndicate Red Brown Green
  • transnational crime
  • Uncategorized
  • Visual Data

Europe

  • Defending History
  • Hungarian Spectrum
  • Yanukovych Leaks

Great Britain

  • Stand for Peace

Israeli and Jewish Affairs

  • Chloe Simone Valdary

Journals

  • Amil Imani
  • New Age Islam

Middle East

  • Human Rights & Democracy for Iran
  • Middle East Research and Information Project

Organizations

  • Anti-Slavery
  • Atlantic Council
  • Fight Hatred
  • Human Rights First Society
  • International Network Against Cyberhate
  • The Center for Victims of Torture

Meta

  • Create account
  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.com

Epigram

Hillel the Elder

"That which is distasteful to thee do not do to another. That is the whole of Torah. The rest is commentary. Now go and study."

"If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If I am not for others, what am I? If not now, when?"

"Whosoever destroys a soul, it is considered as if he destroyed an entire world. And whosoever that saves a life, it is considered as if he saved an entire world."

Oriana Fallaci
"Whether it comes from a despotic sovereign or an elected president, from a murderous general or a beloved leader, I see power as an inhuman and hateful phenomenon...I have always looked on disobedience toward the oppressive as the only way to use the miracle of having been born."

Talmud 7:16 as Quoted by Rishon Rishon in 2004
Qohelet Raba, 7:16

אכזרי סוף שנעשה אכזרי במקום רחמן

Kol mi shena`asa rahaman bimqom akhzari Sof shena`asa akhzari bimqom rahaman

All who are made to be compassionate in the place of the cruel In the end are made to be cruel in the place of the compassionate.

More colloquially translated: "Those who are kind to the cruel, in the end will be cruel to the kind."

Online Source: http://www.rishon-rishon.com/archives/044412.php

Abraham Isaac Kook

"The purely righteous do not complain about evil, rather they add justice.They do not complain about heresy, rather they add faith.They do not complain about ignorance, rather they add wisdom." From the pages of Arpilei Tohar.

Heinrich Heine
"Where books are burned, in the end people will be burned." -- From Almansor: A Tragedy (1823).

Simon Wiesenthal
Remark Made in the Ballroom of the Imperial Hotel, Vienna, Austria on the occasion of His 90th Birthday: "The Nazis are no more, but we are still here, singing and dancing."

Maimonides
"Truth does not become more true if the whole world were to accept it; nor does it become less true if the whole world were to reject it."

"The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision."

Douglas Adams
"Isn't it enough to see that a garden is beautiful without having to believe that there are fairies at the bottom of it too?" Epigram appearing in the dedication of Richard Dawkins' The GOD Delusion.

Thucydides
"The Nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools."

Milan Kundera
"The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting."

Malala Yousafzai
“The terrorists thought that they would change our aims and stop our ambitions but nothing changed in my life except this: weakness, fear and hopelessness died. Strength, power and courage was born.”

Tanit Nima Tinat
"Who could die of love?"

What I Have Said About the Jews

My people, not that I speak for them, I nonetheless describe as a "global ethnic commune with its heart in Jerusalem and soul in the Land of Israel."

We have never given up on God, nor have we ever given up on one another.

Many things we have given up, but no one misses, say, animal sacrifice, and as many things we have kept, so we have still to welcome our Sabbath on Friday at sunset and to rest all of Saturday until three stars appear in the sky.

Most of all, through 5,773 years, wherever life has taken us, through the greatest triumphs and the most awful tragedies, we have preserved our tribal identity and soul, and so shall we continue eternally.

Anti-Semitism / Anti-Zionism = Signal of Fascism

I may suggest that anti-Zionism / anti-Semitism are signal (a little bit) of fascist urges, and the Left -- I'm an old liberal: I know my heart -- has been vulnerable to manipulation by what appears to me as a "Red Brown Green Alliance" driven by a handful of powerful autocrats intent on sustaining a medieval worldview in service to their own glorification. (And there I will stop).
One hopes for knowledge to allay fear; one hopes for love to overmatch hate.

Too often, the security found in the parroting of a loyal lie outweighs the integrity to be earned in confronting and voicing an uncomfortable truth.

Those who make their followers believe absurdities may also make them commit atrocities.

Positively Orwellian: Comment Responding to Claim that the Arab Assault on Israel in 1948 Had Not Intended Annihilation

“Revisionism” is the most contemptible path that power takes to abet theft and hide shame by attempting to alter public perception of past events.

On Press Freedom, Commentary, and Journalism

In the free world, talent -- editors, graphic artists, researchers, writers -- gravitate toward the organizations that suit their interests and values. The result: high integrity and highly reliable reportage and both responsible and thoughtful reasoning.

This is not to suggest that partisan presses don't exist or that propaganda doesn't exist in the west, but any reader possessed of critical thinking ability and genuine independence -- not bought, not programmed -- is certainly free to evaluate the works of earnest reporters and scholars.

Archives

Blog at WordPress.com.

  • Subscribe Subscribed
    BackChannels
    Join 349 other subscribers

    Have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.

  • BackChannels
    View site in Reader
    Manage subscriptionsSign upLog in
    Report this content
    Collapse this bar