Also in Media: Window on Eurasia — New Series: “Putin’s Language Doesn’t Threaten Russia’s Neighbors but Does Threaten Russia, Shchetkina Says” — December 1, 2016

01 Thursday Dec 2016

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  Unfortunately for Russians, what Putin is doing puts them and their culture under threat. “For Russia, the fate of their language is a question of life or death” because the language is in many ways a metaphor for Russia itself. “The Russian language, Russian culture and Russian literature are … what Russia is.”

Indeed, Shchetkina argues, Russia doesn’t exist anywhere beyond these things; and that explains why Putin has said that Russia has no borders because Russia is a “virtual” reality rather than a geographic one.  And in this is a problem: “this culture and language does not belong undividedly to a country which is now called the Russian Federation.”

Source: Window on Eurasia — New Series: Putin’s Language Doesn’t Threaten Russia’s Neighbors but Does Threaten Russia, Shchetkina Says – 12/1/2016.

Putin’s World – Not So Excellent . . . .

01 Thursday Dec 2016

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Posted to YouTube by The National, April 18, 2016.

According to the updated forecast of Economic Development Ministry for 2016, the decline of Russia’s GDP will amount to 0.6%. According to the basic forecast for 2017-2019, the economy will start to grow: GDP will grow by 0.2% in 2017 by 0.9% in 2018 and by 1.2% in 2019. According to the “basic plus” forecast, that the ministry considered to be the most realistic, the economy will grow by 1.1%, 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in the next three years.

http://tass.com/economy/916092 – 12/1/2016

An average of 19.2 million Russians – or 13.4% of the population – were living last year on less than 9,452 roubles ($139) a month, the minimum subsistence level determined by the Russian government in the fourth quarter.

This figure represents a 20% increase year-on-year, with an average 16.1 million people living below the poverty threshold in 2014.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/22/millions-more-russians-living-in-poverty-as-economic-crisis-bites – 3/21/2016.

Almost one in five respondents (17 percent) have had problems with delayed wage packets, while 16 percent expected delays in the coming months.

Some 18 percent said that that they relied on help from the state — a level not seen since 2008.

https://themoscowtimes.com/news/80-of-russians-feeling-countrys-economic-decline-55476 – 9/26/2016.

New numbers may become available for popular web searching at year’s end, but nothing BackChannels has turned up suggests conditions will improve anytime soon.  However, one report (listed in this post’s reference) on Russia’s military economy linked a boost in defense sales numbers to the demonstration in Syria of Moscow’s latest war fighting technology.

 

Where has Russia’s wealth fled?

Over the course of years, “capital flight” from Russia has been disastrous for Moscow.

2015: $58.9 billion
2014: $151.5 billion
2013: $61 billion

The URL’s go direct to source.

BackChannels has seen President Putin encourage the return of capital to Russia’s internal economy, and, still recent in the news, perceives effort to sell Russian capability to business.

Still, there remain the black marks of “unfreedom” (reference the Freedom House listing for Russia), apparent war crimes in Syria, and obvious aggression in the invention and deployment of “hybrid warfare” — and otherwise conventional enough machinery — in Crimea, Ukraine, which is today, literally, a very tense situation.

If BackChannels were part of a multi-billion dollar enterprise, it too might wish to park some largesse in old fashioned rule-of-law London (along with other wealthy — and wise — of the world).

Posted to YouTube by Real Stories, September 13, 2016.

Additional Reference

AFP.  “Russia capital flight more than doubled in 2014 to $151 bn.”  Business Insider, January 19, 2015.

Mugg, James.  “The One Chart That Russia’s Military Should Be Very Afraid Of.”  The National Interest, November 26, 2016.

Oliphant, Roland. “Russia deploys warships near Crimea as Ukraine fires missiles in air defence drill.”  The Telegraph, December 1, 2016.

Posen, Barry R.  “How to Think About Russia.”  The National Interest, November 29, 2016.

Putin, Vladimir.  “Russia Calling!  Investment Forum.”  President of Russia, Kremlin, October 12, 2016.

Rogin, Josh.  “Putin and Assad could face justice for war crimes in Syria.”  The Washington Post, October 9, 2016.

Tanas, Olga and Andre Tartar.  “Putin Favoring Military Picks Guns Over Schools, Hospitals”.  Bloomberg, September 12, 2016.

The Moscow Times.  “Russian Capital Outflow Hit $59 Billion Last Year.”   January 18, 2016.

–33–

Also in Media – “Turkey’s New Islamic Republic” – Philos Project – November 30, 2016

30 Wednesday Nov 2016

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“What I just heard seemed to me to like a recipe for fascism.”

So remarked Turkey scholar Gareth Jenkins during a recent lecture on Turkish politics, part of the Middle East Institute’s 2016 annual conference on Turkey. The participants soberly analyzed the dissolution of Turkey’s once superficially vaunted model of Muslim modernity.

Source: Turkey’s New Islamic Republic – Philos Project – 11/30/2016.

Arson as Terror – Haifa: Known – Gatlinburg, Tennessee – Under Investigation

30 Wednesday Nov 2016

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Update – December 1, 2016

God may have given man imagination for fun —  and we may have given ourselves empiricism to outwit imagination and defend ourselves from our own God-given errors.

Accused of setting the Gatlinburg fires, or at least two of them: Keith Eugene Mann, 49, of Franklin, North Carolina.

http://www.ky3.com/content/news/Death-toll-climbs-to-7-for-wildfires-in-Tennessee-403858096.html – 11/30/2016

https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdnc/pr/franklin-nc-man-arrested-federal-arson-charge – 11/30/2016.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/crime/article118033648.html – 11/30/2016.

Sorry, Russia; sorry, Mr. Putin — on this one, BackChannels may have been wrong . . . but this is how it may go with “hybrid warfare” and the keeping of kleptocratic fellow travelers like that Ayatollah Khamenei.  With the appearance of a mysterious and large fire in an iconic American setting, one might well be found a little bit . . . touchy.

However, the Charlotte Observer piece wraps up with this note:

Officials have said some of the wildfires in the western part of the state are believed to be the work of arsonists. Gov. Pat McCrory has posted rewards up to $10,000 for information leading to the arrest of arsonists.

This note will have to be about national security and possibility in light of the “Phantoms of the Cold War” (e.g., Putin’s revival of the KGB, Russia’s behavior in Syria, and the invasion and, for the time being, annexation of Crimea) and the fact that “active measures”, “hybrid warfare”, the long Soviet relationship with terrorism and Moscow’s present inability to condemn Hamas as a terrorist organizations are real things.

Investigators (and armchair adventurers): leave no stone unturned.

Background — It Makes for Good Fiction, But It May Have Applied

Moscow Apartment Bombings

Satter, David.  “The Unsolved Mystery Behind the Act of Terror that Brought Putin to Power.”  National Review, August 17, 2016.

Two Major Fires

Haifa, Israel

Amid warnings from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel will consider arson an act of terrorism, Israeli police have arrested at least 13 people suspected of starting a series of wildfires that have burned around the country for four days . . . .

There is video evidence that the Haifa fire was an act of arson, a spokesman for the Haifa Fire Department told Israel’s Channel 2 Friday.

A blaze Thursday in Zichron Ya’acov, about 20 miles south of Haifa, also was caused by arsonists, Minister of Public Security Gilad Erdan said Thursday.

http://www.wnd.com/2016/11/arrests-after-arson-terrorism-in-israel/#4qgbbg4LwUuFTwIy.99

Gatlinburg, Tennessee, USA

gat-prkhqtwcrpav

Google Maps, November 30, 2016.

Officials initially reported additional fire activity near the Park Headquarters area, as well as a spot fire between Elkmont and Newfound Gap Road off of the Sugarland Mountain Trail approximately 1 mile south of the Husky Gap Trail intersection.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/us/wildfires-lead-to-evacuation-of-gatlinburg/ar-AAkSBHh – 11/29/2016.

The fire that sparked the dozen other blazes was “human-caused,” National Park Service spokeswoman Dana Soehn said, without elaborating.

The blaze is under investigation.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/29/us/gatlinburg-fires/ – 11/30/2016.

Manipulation — “gaslighting” – has long been associated with “malignant narcissism“.

In  the original sense of the word, the narcissist would rearrange his intended victim’s surroundings without the victim’s knowledge, an effort made to drive the same into madness.

For the purposes of political psychology, BackChannels applies the term to the creation of an entire “theater of the real”, i.e., and as with the “Moscow Apartment Bombings” (cited for background at the top of this post), the intent is to produce an event and spectacle designed to promote a political outcome favorable to the actor.

A near example would be that of the fireman-arsonist who sets the fire, so that he may later show up and share in the heroic glory of putting it out.

The disconnections between Moscow, the encouragement of the terrorism produced by others (or Moscow would have refused to meet with PFLP – Nov. 2014) and would have long ago designated Hamas a terrorist organizations — it has so far refused to take that step), may make the discovery of empirical linkage all but impossible — but revisit the “Moscow Apartment Bombings” and then have a look at the almost under-the-radar firebombings of Haifa and, potentially, the fires burning in the mountains in the vicinity of Gatlinburg, Tennessee, one of America’s true heartland locations, Dollywood and all.

Stockholm, Sweden

The Scandinavian country has been plagued with arsonist thugs setting vehicles alight, with hundreds of cars burning out since 2015.

In 2016 alone, more than 70 cars have been destroyed as police struggle to combat the increasing violence and criminal activity in the famously liberal country.

The latest video shows three cars in Hallunda in southern Stockholm engulfed by flames as firefighters battle to put out the blaze.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/738151/Sweden-Stockholm-car-fire-epidemic-rage-no-go-zone – 11/30/2016.

Is the hand of Moscow behind “Islamic Terrorism” in the United States?

Is there a “meta”connection between fires set in Haifa, Gatlinburg, and Stockholm?

BackChannels invites readers to explore its references and sources and weigh for themselves the depth of the presence of the “Phantoms of the Cold War”, if any, in the recent spate of arson with the public as target.

Additional Reference

BackChannels.  “FTAC — ‘How ISIL Developed'”.  November 12, 2016.

BackChannels.  “It’s Not Islam — It’s Moscow.”  July 15, 2016.

Batchelor, Tom.  “Russian spies are influencing major EU decisions.”  Express UK, January 18, 2016.

Collinson, Stephen.  “Why the alleged Russian spy ring matters.”  CNN Politics, January 28, 2015.

McGreal, Chris.  “How Russian spies infiltrated suburban America.”  The Guardian, June 29, 2010.

Orton, Kyle.  “How Russia Manipulates Islamic Terrorism.”  The Syrian Intifada, September 8, 2015.

Staff.  “One-third of about 90 fires caused by arson, police estimate.”  The Times of Israel, November 27, 2016.

Wikipedia.  “Active Measures”.

Wikipedia.  “Illegals Program” (Russian Agents).

Wikipedia.  “Soviet espionage in the United States”.

Wikipedia.  “Spetsnaz” (Russian Sabateur and Special Forces).

Wikipedia.  “Terrorism and the Soviet Union”.

Related News – Updated

http://www.wbir.com/news/local/gatlinburg-officials-a-fire-for-the-history-books/357912872 – 11/30/2016/1347 (time is time first posted for the cited URL).

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/11/what_caused_the_gatlinburg_wil.html – last updated 12/1/2016.

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/12/gatlinburg_fire_update_death_t.html – last updated 12/2/2016.

http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/gatlinburg-tennessee-fire-cause-arson-arrest-arrests-terrorism-isis-al-qaeda-terrorist-israel-fires-ember-bomb-suspect-forest-jihad/ – 11/30/2016.

–33–

Also in Media: “Why Vladimir Putin Hates Us” | Observer | November 22, 2016

29 Tuesday Nov 2016

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Predictably, the Kremlin maintains that moving state-of-the art missiles into Kaliningrad is a response to American ballistic missile defenses which have been deployed in Eastern Europe. As usual, Moscow depicts all its military moves, even ones which are destabilizing to regional security, as cosmically defensive, so great is the Western threat to Russia.

Source: Why Vladimir Putin Hates Us | Observer

Relevant on BackChannels: “Paranoid Delusional Narcissistic Reflection of Motivation”.

A Short Page Referencing Works by or Associated with Ion Mihai Pacepa

28 Monday Nov 2016

Posted by in Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Political Spychology

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For articles and books authored by Pacepa, the order is chronological.  All listed have had a glance, at least, but with the exception of Red Horizons, which has been ordered.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai.  Red Horizons.  Regnery, 1987.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai.  “The KGB’s Man.”  The Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2003.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai.  “What does Moscow have to do with the recent war in Lebanon?”  National Review, August 24, 2006.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai.  “A New Cold War.”  WND, September 23, 2012.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai and Rychlak, Ronald J. Disinformation. Washington, D.C.: WND Books, 2013.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai.  “Evidence Shows KGB’s Hand in JFK Assassination.”  WND, November 21, 2013.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai.  “Ex-Soviet bloc spy chief explains how to win War on Terror once and for all.”  Fox News, Opinion,  July 9, 2013.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai.  “The Secret Roots of Liberation Theology.”  National Review, April 23, 2015.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai.  Looming Disaster.  (PDF).  WND, 2016.

Pacepa, Ion Mihai.  “Next Trigger Event: 1/1/17.”  Intelligence Matters, WND, August 18, 2016.

Berlinski, Claire.  “The Cold War’s Arab Spring: How the Soviets Created Today’s Middle East.”  Tablet, June 20, 2012.

Eckel, Mike and Eugen Tomiuc.  “Ion MIhai Pacepa, Highest-Ranking Soviet Blog Defector to the West, Reported Dead at 92.”  RFE/RL, February 16, 2021.

Ledeen, Michael.  “The Greatest Spy Speaks About the Threat to America.”  Forbes, September 4, 2016.

Martosko, David.  “EXCLUSIVE: New book reveals how KGB operation seeded Muslims countries with anti-American, anti-Jewish propaganda during the 1970s, laying the groundwork for Islamist terrorism against U.S. and Israel.”  Daily Mail, June 25, 2013.

Timmerman, Kenneth R.  “Former Soviet Spy Sees the Long Arm of the KGB in Today’s Muslim Anti-Semitism.” Tablet, August 7, 2013.

Tomiuc, Eugen.  “The Cold War Roots of Islamist Terrorism.” Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, July 2, 2013.

Wikipedia.  “Disinformation”.

Wikipedia.  “Ion Mihai Pacepa”.

–33–

Lunev’s 1998 Statement – Moscow and the Mob

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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I have no fear of death now whether it comes from cancer or from a paid Russian assassin.  but I do feel I have an obligation to use my experience to warn America of the dirty tricks that can be played against her.  And if I have one message for my adopted country, it is this: the Cold War is not over; the new cold war is between the Russian mafia and the United States; and in this new cold war, the Russian mafia has every tool, every weapon, every intelligence asset at its disposal that the old Soviet Union had.  America is facing a nation led by gangsters — gangsters who have nuclear weapons . . . .

Lunev, Stanislav and Ira Winkler.  Through the Eyes of the Enemy:  Russia’s highest ranking military defector reveals why Russia is more dangerous than ever.  Washington, D.C.: Regnery Publishing, Inc., 1998.

” . . . and some of those weapons are actually on American soil, as I will explain” finished the ellipses left in the quotation block.

One hesitates when typing such a sentence.

At minimum, the import calls for digression.

Was Lunev’s 1999 book disinforming as regards the “suitcase bomb” question?

Or has the matter been suppressed?

Or has the asserton been just too large and scary a possibility to hang on for long without donning the tinfoil hat?

That too is a possibility as searches for a related 60 Minutes report — “The Perfect Terrorist Weapon” — produces reference online, but to get at the episode appears to involve hitting one of dozens of iffy “torrent” type (illicit share site) web addresses.

BackChannels will plead with both the legal and faint of heart on that potentially disastrous next step — and not take it.

So one may toss Lunev’s page-turning statement into the “don’t know /won’t know” bin, at least, so BackChannels and its readers may hope, for a good long time.

Less questionable: the Russian state as a “mafia state” and international mafia enterprise:

Investigators in Spain have been at the vanguard of the fight against Russian organized crime, warning fellow NATO members for years of the dangers posed by what they call state-sanctioned syndicates, an issue that’s become more acute since the conflict in Ukraine rekindled Cold War distrust.

After a briefing by Grinda, one of the prosecutors, in Madrid in 2010, U.S. officials concluded that Putin runs a “virtual mafia” state where the activities of criminal networks are indistinguishable from those of the government, according to a classified cable from the U.S. embassy in the Spanish capital that was published by WikiLeaks.

Russian security services control criminal groups and use them to do things the government “cannot acceptably do,” Grinda was cited as telling U.S. officials at the time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/putin-allies-aided-russian-mafia-in-spain-prosecutors-say – 6/29/2016.

At the base of this post is a 14-minute trailer for a 91-minute documentary (subtitled) about Russian mafia — “Thieves by Law (Ganavim Ba Hok).”

Additional Reference

CNN.  “Former Russian spy Col. Stanislav Lunev’s reaction to FBI agent’s arrest for spying.”  February 20, 2001.

Committee on National Security, Military Research and Development Subcommittee, House of Representatives.  “OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. CURT WELDON, A REPRESENTATIVE FROM PENNSYLVANIA, CHAIRMAN, MILITARY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SUBCOMMITTEE”.  Inquiry into Moscow’s potential deployment of “man-portable nuclear weapons”.  August 4, 1998.

Drudge Report Archives.  “Lebed: 100 Nukes Missing in Russia.”  Norris Carden’s e-mail collection of Drudge’s Special Reports. September 5, 1997.

Meyer, Josh.  “Ex-Soviet Spy Testifies on Hidden Weapons.”  Los Angeles Times, January 25, 2000.

National Terror Alert.  “Suitcase Nukes”.

Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).  “The Perfect Terrorist Weapon.”  Comment on 60 Minutes program aired September 7, 1997.

Yablokov, Alexei.  “Comments on Russia’s Atomic Suitcase Bombs.”  Frontline, PBS, n.d.

PDF Format

Finckenauer, James O. and Yuri A. Voronin.  “The Threat of Russian Organized Crime.”  Issues in International Crime, NCJ, 2001.

Russia as Mafia State – Fast Links

In time, Louie and Z left the shores of the Atlantic for Zurich, Switzerland – and a far more menacing situation: A meeting with a high-ranking Russian General offering his government’s arsenal for sale.

“We’re talking long-range missiles, tanks, submarines, everything,” Z said.

The danger was driven home last week with the New York indictment of notorious Russian arms dealer Victor Boot, captured in Thailand in March. He was charged with selling weapons to a terrorist group to be used to kill Americans.

That’s hardly a scene from “The Sopranos.”

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/undercover-look-inside-the-russian-mob/ – 5/13/2008.

http://www.rferl.org/a/putins-mafia-statecraft/27329898.html – 10/27/2015.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/06/23/crimean-gangland-putin-s-seaside-mafia-state.html – 6/23/2015.

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_security_concerns_russian_mafia_back_on_agenda7083 – 7/25/2016:

In the 1990s, the so-called “Russian Mafia” was Europe’s new nightmare, an overblown threat surging west into Europe instead of Soviet tanks. In the 2000s, it had become a cliché, the thriller-writer’s staple. Now it is back on the agenda, with serious concerns that organised crime has become a ‘fifth column’ of the Kremlin’s effort to undermine European security.

 

http://uatoday.tv/crime/mafia-friends-of-president-putin-wanted-in-spain-642267.html – 5/3/2016.

http://uatoday.tv/crime/seven-members-of-russian-mafia-arrested-in-spain-681260.html – 6/28/2016.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/putin-allies-aided-russian-mafia-in-spain-prosecutors-say – 6/29/2016.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/armine-sahakyan/the-export-other-countrie_b_11009200.html – 7/15/2016.

Wikipedia Entries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Atomic_Demolition_Munition

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Lunev

–33–

Also in Media: Georgie Anne Geyer commentary: “After 52 years, peace could break out in Colombia” | The Columbus Dispatch – September 15, 2016

26 Saturday Nov 2016

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On Feb. 15, 1966, the government announced that Father Camilo Torres had been killed in an encounter with Colombian troops. The wars went on; Camilo became the revolution’s holy mascot.

At the time, we who were covering the story wondered: How long would these ”wars” between the disaffected, nihilistic young and the wealthy landowners and priests who ran Colombia actually last? Five years? Ten? Maybe even — God forbid — 15?

In fact, these wars have lasted 52 years, with 220,000 dead on both sides, and with the 6,800 or so Marxist guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known always as FARC, ruling over 18,000 peasants. In the isolated valleys and rivers of that mountainous land, they were using the peasants in part as a workforce for coca, and thus cocaine, production.

Source: Georgie Anne Geyer commentary: After 52 years, peace could break out in Colombia | The Columbus Dispatch