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Tag Archives: analysis

Egypt – Where the Center Has Not Held, Not Yet

15 Thursday Aug 2013

Posted by commart in Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Egypt, Islamic Small Wars, Middle East, Regions

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analysis, conflict, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, political, politics

The torture process starts once a demonstrator who opposes President Mohammed Morsi is arrested in the clashes or is suspected after the clashes end, and the CSF separate Morsi’s supporters from his opponents. Then, the group members trade off punching, kicking and beating him with a stick on the face and all over his body. They tear off his clothes and take him to the nearest secondary torture chamber, from which CSF personnel, members of the Interior Ministry and the State Security Investigations Services (SSIS) are absent.

Jarehi, Mohamad.  “Al-Masry Al-Youm Reports on Brotherhood Torture Chambers.”  Al Monitor, December 7, 2012.

*

At least one protester was incinerated in his tent. Many others were shot in the head or chest, including some who appeared to be in their early teens, including the 17-year-old daughter of a prominent Islamist leader, Mohamed el-Beltagy. At a makeshift morgue in one field hospital on Wednesday morning, the number of bodies grew to 12 from 3 in the space of 15 minutes.

Kirkpatrick, David D.  “Hundreds Die as Egyptian Forces Attack Islamist Protesters.”  The New York Times, August 14, 2013.

It appears Egypt’s polarized politics knows no language for accommodation, compassion, or compromise, and it may also lack the wherewithal needed to control the amplitude of state violence against constituents on those occasions when riot suppression or the conclusion of a reasonable period of mass protest may be warranted.

* * *

Bishop Anba Suriel, the bishop for the Coptic Orthodox Church in Melbourne, wrote on his Twitter micro blog, “over 20 separate attacks on churches and Christian institutions all over Egypt.”

Weinthal, Benjamin.  “Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi supporters torch Egyptian churches.”  The Jerusalem Post, August 15, 2013.

One correspondent suggested to me this morning that Egypt would follow Syria in its self-destruction, but I’m not so sure considering that Mubarak with his plans to install a dynasty are today long gone (seems like it) and even with the excessive force displayed by Egypt’s military in the latest fighting, the qualities of a Maher al-Assad and his wanton aerial bombing sprees are not in it.

The fascist theocratic ambitions of the Muslim Brotherhood have been made plain at every passage since Mubarak’s overthrowing, from lies told to win elections to publicizing the possession and use of the old regime’s torture chambers — a flagrant act of intimidation unsuited completely to the values inherent in the concept of a democratically self-governed and modern state — to, finally, acts of war, of seeming allowance of crime with impunity, against Egypt’s Coptic Christian minority, not to mention some bold anti-Semitic ranting on the side.

* * *

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

The Second Coming (Yeats)

Mere mention of “the center will not hold” would summon to the English mind the above poem (in Yeats’s vision, “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”), but it seems in Egypt at the moment that there is a political center, a broad class of more moderate constituents, i.e., those who turned out by the millions to demand, in essence, Morsi’s resignation or that the army remove him, that seems itself helpless to defend itself against the nefarious methods of the Muslim Brotherhood through other than martial power.

That much is not — indeed, has not been — the fault of the moderate.

Reference

Al Aribya.  “Egypt police say will use live ammunition to repel attacks.”  August 15, 2013.

Al Aribya.  “Egypt’s Brotherhood vows to bring down ‘military coup’.”  August 15, 2013.

Ashraf, Fady.  “Four journalists reported dead in Wednesday’s violence.”  Daily News Egypt, August 15, 2013.

Elbaradei, Mohamed.  Jay Roddy, Translator.  “Updated: Mohamed Elbaradei’s Official Resignation.”  Amira Mikhail (blog), August 14, 2013.

Fahim, Kareem and Mayy El Sheikh.  “Fierce and Swift Raids on Islamists Bring Sirens, Gunfire, Then Screams.”  The New York Times, August 14, 2013.

Hendawi, Hamza and Maggie Michael.  “Egypt Protests: Clashes Between Security Forces, Protesters Turn Deadly in Cairo (LIVE UPDATES).  Huffington Post, August 14, 2013.

Ibrahim, Raymond.  “Christians Should “Convert, Pay Tribute, or Leave,” Says Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Candidate?”  Gatestone Institutde, May 30, 2012.

JTA.  “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood tops anti-Semitic rhetoric list.”  Haaretz, December 28, 2012.

Gabbay, Tiffany.  “Egyptian Reporter Given A Disturbing Look Inside the Muslim Brotherhood’s ‘Torture Chambers’.”  The Blaze, December 10, 2012.

Hoffman, Bill.  “Walid Phares: Egyptians Mad at US Embrace of Muslim Brotherhood.”  Newsmax, August 14, 2013.

Loveluck, Louisa and Damien McElroy.  “Ten-year-old Christian girl shot dead as violence returns to Egypt’s streets.”  The Telegraph, August 14, 2013.

Nawara, Wael.  “Brotherhood’s Scorched-Earth Strategy Provokes More Bloodshed.”  Al Monitor, August 14, 2013.

Sabra, Hani and Bassem Sabry.  “Morsi is Not Arab World’s Mandela.”  Al Monitor, August 12, 2013.  This article deals with a serious snit as well as a serious issue involving either perception or integration or both:

However, Karman’s recent comparison of deposed Egyptian leader Mohammed Morsi to Nelson Mandela, one of the most influential and inspirational figures of the latter half of the 20th century and whose name is synonymous with courage, struggle and wisdom, is astoundingly wrongheaded. Mandela remains a global moral authority. Morsi is not worthy of such praise — not even close.

I list it here because it conveys what is represented in the pro-Morsi part of Egypt’s turmoil.

Morsi’s infamous November 2012 presidential decree, which established him as above the law and forcefully installed a political ally as prosecutor-general, was ultimately used to ram through a divisive constitution. The bloody clashes that followed and the sequence of events that ensued left Egypt dangerously polarized and the January 2011 revolution in tatters.

Szoldra, Paul.  “Egypt Orders Mass Arrests of Muslim Brotherhood Members.” Business Insider, July 3, 2013.

trustedsource11 – Political Violence in Egypt (Video Channel).  “Egyptian policement killed inside their police station by Muslim Brotherhood *Graphic*.”  Live Leak, August 14, 2013.

# # #

Syria – Putin’s Blind Spot – Obama’s Misstep

06 Tuesday Aug 2013

Posted by commart in Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Islamic Small Wars, Middle East, Politics, Regions, Syria

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analysis, Obama, political, politics, Putin, Syria

The conflict in Syria is not complicated.

It is twisted.

It draws on an anti-human egotism and irrationality to divide its national community and set each at the other’s throat, and not only those quick to fight but families too.

As it is, Syria remains unsolvable as one would wish to promote neither a brutal dictatorship, which if Assad’s wasn’t, it has certainly become, nor the fascist vision of a humanity subjugated to men who would portray themselves as the appointees of God and would become themselves absolute powers.

Although I’ve collected below a few leads and quotes from recent news, each seeming to balance out the other, one might fault Putin a little more than Obama over Syria for having taken a deeply anomic stance that set aside the conflict’s developing human toll in death, suffering, and, not to be overlooked, social disorganization and anarchy in favor of reducing overt policy to revenues tied to military contracts.

Is that a stance worthy of an empire?

An emperor?

* * *

I suppose if I were somehow working under contract with, say, RAND, I’d feel better about not knowing the answers with regard to Syria.

In that way, of course, it’s okay if idling over a blog one fails to outfox two of the world’s most powerful politicians, their advisers, and their nation’s think-tanks.

One might also consider such a “cop out” at any level of intellectual endeavor.

Clearly, Syria is a collapsing house on fire, and sooner or later, the neighborhood will have to account for the homeless and the maimed, the destruction of economic assets, including trade relationships, the diminishment of the efficacy of state, regional, and local powers, and the dangers posed by continuing and related political anarchy and its spillovers.

Obama’s bid to approach Iran’s looming nuclear threat by way of Qatar and through Syria would seem of equal positive interest to post-Soviet Russia, and it may be and may be working out that way (remember: Russia has largely ferried away its civilian and military presence in Syria), but it has no interest in the promotion of Sunni Islam over Shiite (nor should the world at large, Sunnis and Shiites included, have that interest — perhaps that’s to be saved for another post), and it knows — and Obama should know — that attempting to develop and validate an Islamic democracy today affords a look at the span from the chartering of Pakistan to the ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

It does not work.

Or it does not work sensibly or well without direct challenge.

And it does not do so because the language of Islam in its totality has not been updated (not with “invention” on lock-out) or reformed, so that good sentiment borrowed from a Jew, say, Hillel’s “whosoever destroys a soul, it is considered as if he destroyed an entire world. And whosoever that saves a life, it is considered as if he saved an entire world” (source: Wikipedia) cannot offset the grandiose, pandering, and placating slips that disservice mankind in the name of human aggrandizement: “Fight against such of those who have been given the Scripture as believe not in Allah nor the Last Day, and forbid not that which Allah hath forbidden by His messenger, and follow not the Religion of Truth, until they pay the tribute readily, being brought low” (Quraan 9:29 — I chose to lift from a skeptic’s web page).

Eventually, resettling Syria, not alone in this predicament, will mean introducing and strengthening other thought in the environment and that extensively and potently enough to bring Syria’s displaced back to their homes or known lands or landscapes with their heads held high but in them a different outlook on their humanity and their evaluation of political leadership.

I don’t see that happening today.

In fact, what one sees may be opposite: further exposure and subjection to criminality and humiliation for those in camps or lost on the new landscape and otherwise squeezed between these other and most evil forces come to fight within the state to sustain war without end and with an intellectual basis that proves altogether and repeatedly incoherent as regards decency in purpose.

What follows is what I’ve snagged off the web while constructing these thoughts.

* * *

BEIRUT — Human Rights Watch says the Syrian military is firing ballistic missiles into populated areas where it is battling rebels, killing hundreds of civilians.

The U.S.-based group said in a report released Monday that it has investigated nine apparent missile attacks that killed at least 215 people, half of them children, between February and July.

AP.  “Syria Conflict: Military Firing Ballistic Missiles Into Populated Areas, Killing Hundreds of Civilians: Watchdog.”  Huffington Post, August 5, 2013.

Comment on Qusayr:

“The devastation is evident everywhere. According to the government telecoms chiefMtanios al-Shaer, “The terrorists destroyed everything 24 hours before the town was liberated, and caused damage of a billion Syrian pounds ($57 million).”

Hafiz, Yasmine.  “Syria Conflict Destroys Churches & Mosques, Desecrates Icons (PHOTOS).”  Religion, Huffington Post, August 6, 2013.

Activists and local opposition groups in Syria accused regime forces for using poisonous form of gas in the city of Douma and Adra, outskirts of Damascus.

According to the local media offices, Syrian army has launched a series of attacks on these two big cities on Monday. More than 400 people have been hospitalised showing symptoms of convulsion, shortness of breath, profuse sweating and frothy sputum, activists said.

Al Jazeera.  “Activists in Syria claim poisonous form of gas was used by regime forces in an attack on Douma and Adra.”  Video included, not vetted.  August 5, 2013.

“No solution can be reached with terror except by striking it with an iron fist,” Assad said.

. . . .

He accused the Syrian National Coalition of “being on the payroll of more than one Gulf country,” and of “blaming the (Syrian) state for terrorism rather than blaming the armed men,” or rebels.

Al Aribya.  “Assad’s solution to Syrian conflict: striking ‘terror with iron fist’.”  August 5, 2013.

* * *

Charles Lister, an analyst at IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center, has said that “There is no doubt that as a distinct single entity, Syria has ceased to exist… Considering the sheer scale of its territorial losses in some areas of the country, Syria no longer functions as a single all-encompassing unitarily-governed state.”

Rieser, Bennett.  “War in Syria: Nation Suffers 3-Way Divide.” WebProNews, August 5, 2013.

President Bashir Assad will be winning until he loses; alternatively, he may hold out and win on that level, but his Syria won’t be that which he inherited.

Additional Reference

Amnesty International.  “Aleppo satellite images show devastation, mass displacement one year on.”  August 7, 2013.

Blake, Matt.  “The wasteland: Horrifying aerial pictures show full scale of destruction of Syrian city of Homs.”  Mail Online, July 31, 2013.

Borri, Francesca.  “I want to talk about Syria, not just my role as a freelance journalist.”  The Guardian, July 26, 2013.  As long as I’m updating reference, I thought I would include this as mere mention (plus a comment) of the journalist has brought me some recent traffic.  One day, perhaps starting with Margaret Bourke-White, I will have to write about peripatetic women journalists in war zones.  They are great people!

Defense World.  “Syria Buying Russian Weapons With American Dollars.”  August 6, 2013.

Dreyfuss, Bob.  “Russia’s Stake in Syria’s War.”  The Nation, August 6, 2013.

Kroth, Olivia.  “Syria’s optimism for 2013.”  Pravda (English), January 25, 2013.

Mackey, Robert.  “Stunning Images of Destroyed Syrian City.” Blog.   The New York Times, July 31, 2013.

Skelton, Charlie.  “The Syrian opposition: who’s doing the talking?”  The Guardian, July 12, 2013:

“The sand is running out of the hour glass,” said Hillary Clinton on Sunday. So, as the fighting in Syria intensifies, and Russian warships set sail for Tartus, it’s high time to take a closer look at those who are speaking out on behalf of the Syrian people.”

Sky News.  “Syria: Dramatic Images of Destruction in Homs.”  July 30, 2013.

Star Tribune.  “Senators press Pentagon to end helicopter contract with Russian arms exporter tied to Syria.”  August 5, 2013:

WASHINGTON — Twelve Republican and Democratic senators are calling on the Pentagon to cancel all contracts to buy helicopters for Afghan security forces from a state-run Russian arms exporter that is a top weapons supplier to the Syrian government.

Ya Libnan.  “Russian ships transferring Hezbollah fighters to Syria: Idris.”  July 25, 2013 (bold italics mine):

General Salim Idris, the head of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) accused Russia of using its ships in the Mediterranean to transfer Hezbollah fighters from Beirut , Lebanon directly to the mostly Alawite province of Tartus in western Syria.

In an interview with the Turkish Anadolu News Agency he also accused Russia and Iran of supplying the Syrian army with 400 tons of ammunition every ten days.

Wikipedia.  “List of heritage sites damaged during Syrian civil war”.

Syria At the Moment

27 Thursday Jun 2013

Posted by commart in Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Middle East, Regions, Religion, Syria

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Tags

analysis, civil war, conflict, political, politics, Russia, Syria

Hezbollah sources told the paper that Nasrallah requested full financial and military backing for the fighting in Syria in a meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Solomon, Ariel Ben.  “Report: Nasrallah secretly visited Iran to discuss Syria war.”  Jerusalem Post, June 27, 2013.

The above may be news recently released, but given the pace of the combat in Syria and the spillover into Lebanon, it’s old news predating the battle for al-Qusayr.

However, one may take as signal Russia’s decision implemented today to retrieve its military from the naval base at Tartus.

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia has withdrawn all military personnel from its naval base in Syria and replaced them with civilian workers, the Defense Ministry said Thursday.

The ministry did not say when the switch at the base at Tartus took place or how many personnel were deployed there. The minor facility is Russia’s only naval outpost outside the former Soviet Union. It consists of several barracks and depots used to service Russian navy ships in the Mediterranean.

AP.  “Russia replaces military with civilians at Syrian base.”  USA Today, June 27, 2013.

Ah hah!

“We have neither servicemen nor civilians in Syria anymore. Or Russian military instructors assigned to units of the Syrian regular Army, for that matter,” a Russian defense ministry spokesperson is quoted as telling the Moscow business daily Vedomosti yesterday.”

Weir, Fred.  “Why Russia evacuated its naval base in Syria.”  The Christian Science Monitor, June 27, 2013.

Fred Weir points to Cyprus as an alternative achieving similar ends for Russian naval power and regional influence.

Put that together with this Euronews video from January this year (tipped by a CSM article):

While according to RT, “Russia’s Defense Ministry . . . blasted media reports about total evacuation as “extremely incorrect,” it’s difficult accepting the statement while looking at today’s breaking news and January apparent exodus of civilians by jet (RT, “Russian Defense Ministry refutes reports of Syria evacuation,” June 27, 2013).  In fact, RT goes on to actually emphasize aspects of the surface or top story.

Putin’s interests, whether defined financially for the long term or in terms of impact on his reputation in history, which I think more important to him than casually acknowledged, are not with “Islamists” — not in Chechnya with the rebels of the Kavkaz Center variety, not with Iran with Ayatollah Khamenei and his nuclear ambitions that would be used to threaten Russia every bit as much — more — as NATO.

For Putin, the restoration of Russian grandeur and strength, plus strength in national  and heroic self-concept, may involve navigating the balance between “bad boy” bravado and action with, actually (gasp!) even greater laudable strategy.

Whatever Putin does, he will be regarded as the bridge between the conniving, defunct, invasive police state that by the merit of the Russian People themselves had come to define the Soviet Union and this New Russian Federation that’s not about to take orders from Washington but might succeed in doing great right things on its own authority.

Most certainly, modern Russians will not want to be remembered for — or long associated with either — with the ravages of Maher al-Assad’s military, and while “the west” can take no pride in backing the kind of warrior that would cut out the liver out of his enemy and eat it, the Russian position, which appears to be decoupling from Syria, sails clear of the taint of that barbarism, albeit later than sooner with regard to the casualties and refugees of the war to date.

The problem with Syria, at the moment, and one of many problems within the Islamic Ummah, is that along the sectarian axis, neither side knows how to stop and both continue to walk toward a fire built on and sustained by their own unrestrained and unreasoning energies.

Additional Reference

Connolly, Kevin.  “Syria war exerts strain on Lebanon tinderbox.”  BBC, June 27, 2013.

Deutsch, Anthony and Parisa Hafezi.  “U.N. chemical weapons team in Turkey to investigate Syria claims.”  Reuters, June 27, 2013.

Fisk, Robert.  “Iran to send 4,000 troops to aid President Assad forces in Syria.”  The Independent, June 16, 2013.

Nebehay, Stephanie.  “Syria war likely to drag on, Red Cross president says.”  Reuters, June 27, 2013.

ROAvideos.  “Defining the Threat: Iranian Strategy in Syria.”  Video (1:38:23).  June 27, 2013.

Syria – The Cost of Incoherence

05 Wednesday Jun 2013

Posted by commart in Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Middle East, Regions, Syria

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Al Nusra, Al Qaeda, analysis, Islamists, Obama, political, politics, Putin, Qusayr, rebels, Syria

Of course one reason why President Barack Obama and other Western leaders are staying well on the sidelines in this conflict may be precisely due to the intelligence reports warning that Assad is a far harder nut to crack than previously thought.

Syrian Army forces guard a checkpoint in Damascus in May 2013. Better armed, and better logistical support.(Reuters)

That and the fact that the rebels are no closer to forming a winning, united or even trustworthy insurgency

Stewart, Brian.  “Brian Stewart: Is Syria’s Assad turning the tide of battle?”  CBC News, June 5, 2013.

The news breaking for the past several hours is that Syrian troops with a boost from Hezbollah have gained control of al-Qusayr, a border town associated with arms smuggling from Lebanon and prized for the highway connecting Damascus to Homs.

Last month, Real Clear Politics suggested that “Without stronger U.S. measures, the most likely outcome is the fragmentation of Syria into warring fiefdoms, with some turf controlled by Iran and some by al-Qaeda” (“U.S. policy on Syria still lacks coherence,” May 1, 2013).  As much may be a nightmare come true.

While General Selim Idriss of the Free Syrian Army may be counted on to represent a moderate proto-democratic force, the crowd beneath the umbrella may be too diverse, negatively so, for moving in that one direction.

More than a year ago, the Institute for the Study of War published Joseph Holliday’s Middle East Security Report 3: Syria’s Armed Opposition (March 2012), which notes in its executive summary section the following:

“As the militias continue to face overwhelming regime firepower the likelihood of their radicalization may increase. moreover, the indigenous rebels may turn to al-Qaeda for high-end weaponry and spectacular tactics as the regime’s escalation leaves the rebels with no proportionate response, as occurred in iraq in 2005-2006. Developing relations with armed opposition leaders and recognizing specific rebel organizations may help to deter this dangerous trend.”

As much has come to pass.

This comes from a Reuters filing in mid-May:

“Nusra is now two Nusras. One that is pursuing al Qaeda’s agenda of a greater Islamic nation, and another that is Syrian with a national agenda to help us fight Assad,” said a senior rebel commander in Syria who has close ties to the Nusra Front.

“It is disintegrating from within.”

Today, the black flag of Al Qaeda flies over Raqqa, Syria.

From Al Arabiya:

“Anyone who might have a complaint against any element of the Islamic state, whether the Emir or an ordinary soldier, can come and submit their complaint in any headquarters building of the Islamic state,” the notice stated. “The complaint should be in writing, provide details and give evidence.”

Al-Qaeda then goes on to promise that those who commit transgressions will face justice.

The weird left, from “globalresearch” to “counterpunch” to “infowars” have been having a field day asserting an Obama+Al-Qaeda connection (as much I deduce from the headers alone: “How Obama and Al-Qaeda Became Syrian Bedfellows”; “Obama to Arm Al-Qaeda Terrorists in Syria”.

You can look those up yourself.

I’m only wondering if I need to buy a new olive drab field jacket, say about two sizes up from whatever was in the closet in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

In Syria, perhaps signaled by the state’s turnaround in Qusayr, Putin wins this round because, oh honey oh baby Obama, ain’t no one carrying around even a smidgen of the west in less than half a brain wants to hang around with Al Qaeda and its ilk, and it appears those have gotten their hooks into the community of rebel organizations in Syria, General Idriss’s moderate appeal notwithstanding.

*****

Reference

Al Arabiya.  “Al-Qaeda sets up ‘complaints department’ in Syrian city of Raqqa.”  June 3, 2013.

Al Jazeera.  “Syrian army regains strategic city of Qusayr.”  June 5, 2013.

BBC.  “Syrian rebels ‘can fight Hezbollah in Lebanon’ – Idriss.”  June 5, 2013.

Hornik, P. David.  “Showdown in Syria.”  Frontpage Magazine, May 30, 2013.

Karouny, Mariam.  “Insight: Syria’s Nusra Front eclipsed by Iraq-based al Qaeda.”  Reuters, May 17, 2013.

Sly, Liz.  “Islamic law comes to rebel-held Syria.”  The Washington Post, March 19, 2013.  Excerpt:

Building on the reputation they have earned in recent months as the rebellion’s most accomplished fighters, Islamist units are seeking to assert their authority over civilian life, imposing Islamic codes and punishments and administering day-to-day matters such as divorce, marriage and vehicle licensing.

Spencer, Richard.  “Al-Qaeda’s Syrian wing takes over the oilfields once belonging to Assad.”  The Telegraph, May 18, 2013.  Excerpt:

Their battlefield supremacy has enabled them to seize the economic as well as the military high-ground.

In Raqqa, they also control flour production, earning money from selling to bakeries, some of which they own as well. “Jabhat now own everything here,” one disillusioned secular activist said.

The Washington Post.  “A grim anniversary: Two years of conflict in Syria.” May 18, 2013.  The video is the same as the YouTube copy posted above this reference section.

FNS – TWI – Syria – Assad’s Military Position in Qusayr –

31 Friday May 2013

Posted by commart in Fast News Share

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analysis, commentary, military, Qusayr, strategy, Syria

The battle is also important politically and psychologically. For the regime, al-Qusayr offers a chance to display its strength to allies and enemies alike. A victory would boost its resilience and affirm the commitment of its supporters.

White, Jeffrey.  “The Qusayr Rules: The Syrian Regime’s Changing Way of War.”  The Washington Institute, May 31, 2013.

Given the brutal dictatorship on one side and Islamofascist zeal on the other, I can’t assign Jeffrey White’s fine military analysis any emotional valence.  With more than 92,000 dead in Syria and 3.5 million homeless, one may only hope the civil war resolves; however, I suspect even if Assad defeats rebel forces at al-Qusayr, that won’t happen.

Less involved Syrians — noncombatants, innocents, old men, women, and children, etc. — will never forgive the Assads for bombing the living daylights out of their business and residential digs and for heightening their suffering in ways far beyond and far different from what may have been required to suppress a revolution.

Not that I’m cheering rebels who may have indulged in some share of atrocity, battlefield obscenity — that’s about where I would put cutting out a man’s heart and biting it — and massacre.  Add: firing line execution to that shame.  At least with that, the troops who have taken no prisoners may not expect to be merely captured themselves should the fortunes of war turn against them.

# # #

Yakhont Story Unfolds Another Story

17 Friday May 2013

Posted by commart in Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Psychology

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analysis, Assad, family, narcissism, politics, Syria

http://youtu.be/lSmcM0jBUfg

Russia’s delivery of Yakhont missiles to Syria represents the fulfillment of earlier contract obligations but with updated guidance technology. [1]

In 2011, Israel Matzav noted of the Yakhont:

“Israel is the only one in the region the Yakhonts would be used against. However, because Iran is supplying (unofficially) the cash for the missiles, there is also the risk that some of the Yakhonts would end up in Iran for use against numerous targets in the Persian Gulf.” [2]

Add to that risk: Israel Matzav notes the new missile as having twice the speed of the old one (and, again, improved guidance).

How far does President Putin wish to go with supporting, essentially, Brigadier General Maher al-Assad?

I may not be paid enough (nothing, actually) to answer that question.

🙂

Above: March 16, 2013 – Anti-Assad protesters walk toward 10 Downing Street, London.

YouTube poster of the video “Thepeopleofsyria” notes, “What a shame, the world and the Media are busy with the length of the beards of the demonstrators in Syria, while they are forgetting about the length of the scud missiles of Bashar, which are coming down on the heads of women and children.”

* * *

I’ll take a little turn here — first confessing that I really don’t know how to answer the question I posed, which has two parts: 1) the fundamental psychology in personality supporting attitudes toward others; 2) dependent and co-dependent interpersonal relationships with significant others and closely associated constellations.

What is most known is Moscow’s antipathy toward “political Islam”, the continuing simmer of restive states-of-affairs in Chechnya, and Putin’s own desire to encourage what psychologists call “narcissistic supply”: i.e., he really doesn’t want to be “the bad guy” — consequently: he really isn’t.

Putin himself would not fire a weapon at mere passersby on a street corner.

Bad form, bad style, all of that.

Moreover, Putin seems to me to have his “back stage” and “front stage” self-presentation in better order, and he seems also to know limits, moderation, and restraint.  After all, he works with a whole Russian People.

His associate may not have access to that grace that is the expression of a different mirrored self.

It’s hard to tell.

In 2012, writing for The New York Times, journalist Anne Barnard punched this in toward the end of her analysis of the Assad family’s position:

“The Assads were raised by their father and their uncles — aggressive men — to believe “they were demigods and Syria was their playground,” said Rana Kabbani, the daughter of a prominent diplomat who knew them growing up.” [3]

In the west, people prefer to see their demigods with guitars, not armies, and they much prefer to hear them singing then to watch them writing laws for everyone else to follow.

In any case, it is not good to have too much power, which is corrupting, much less to exceed limits with it, which is damning.

Cited Reference

1. The Jerusalem Post.  “Report: Russia sends Assad ‘ship killing missile’.  May 17, 2013.

2. Israel Matzav.  “Russia provides Syria with Yakhont anti-ship missiles.”  November 23, 2011.

3. Barnard, Anne.  “No Easy Route if Assad Opts to Go, or Stay, in Syria.”  The New York Times, December 24, 2012:

Analysts in Russia, one of Syria’s staunchest allies, say that as rebels try to encircle Damascus and cut off escape routes to the coast, the mood in the palace is one of panic, evinced by the erratic use of weapons: Scud missiles better used against an army than an insurgency, naval mines dropped from the air instead of laid at sea.

Other Reference

ABC News.  “Asma Assad Makes Rare Appearance.”  Video.  March 17, 2013.

Babiak, Paul.  “‘Psychopath’ or ‘Narcissist’: The Coach’s Dilemma. Worldwide Association of Business Coaches, April 28, 2011.

Eshel Tamir.  “How serious is the P800 Yakhont threat?  Does it have a destabilizing effect on the Middle East?”  Defense Update, September 20, 2010:

The expected arrival of the P800 Yakhont supersonic anti-ship missile in Syria is considered the first serious attempt by Syria to directly challenge the Israel Navy since the 1973 war, when the Israeli Navy sunk five Syrian vessels in the first missile-boat engagement known as the ‘Battle of Latakia’.

Eshel, Tamir.  “Syria Receives 72 Yakhont Missiles from Russia.”  Defense Update, December 3, 2011:

December 2, 2011: Russia has supplied two Bastion coastal missile systems to Syria, concluding a controversial $300 million arms deal inked with the Syrian government four years ago.

House of Mirrors.  “Malignant Narcissist, Covetous Sociopath, Bully, Liar, Slanderer . . .”  May 28, 2011:  “For the narcissist believes that everything belongs to her, and if someone has a little of it, then she’s not getting all of it. Pathological greed, entitlement, and covetousness are what makes the malignant narcissist a dangerous predator.”

Khalaf, Roula.  “Bashar al-Assad: behind the mask.”  FT Magazine, June 15, 2012.  Lead: “They burn his effigy in towns drenched in blood by his security forces.”  Of the patchwork of stories I’ve thrown into this section, this piece, which is coming up on its one-year anniversary, may be the one most rich for insight into the political, psychological, and social workings of the Assad regime.

SociopathWorld.  “Why I hate narcissists.”  January 1, 2012.

Wikipedia.  “P-800 Oniks”.

In Foreign Affairs – Putin – Analysis From March 2013

13 Monday May 2013

Posted by commart in Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Islamic Small Wars, Middle East, Regions, Syria

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

analysis, extremists, Obama, political, politics, Putin, Syria

For Putin, Syria is all too reminiscent of Chechnya. Both conflicts pitted the state against disparate and leaderless opposition forces, which over time came to include extremist Sunni Islamist groups. In Putin’s view — one that he stresses repeatedly in meetings with his U.S. and European counterparts — Syria is the latest battleground in a global, multi-decade struggle between secular states and Sunni Islamism, which first began in Afghanistan with the Taliban, then moved to Chechnya, and has torn a number of Arab countries apart.

Hill, Fiona.  “The Real Reason Putin Supports Assad: Mistaking Syria for Chechnya”. Foreign Affairs, March 25, 2013.

I don’t think Putin has in any way mistaken Syria for Chechnya, but the question of how to address an Islamic front or wave differs quite between what I would glean as Obama’s vision and Russia’s hard experience.

Obama has approached “Islamist” (I’ve been told the word does not exist in Arabic) aggression with what I call the “least war possible” by showing the “hand of peace” at the start of his first administration, by wiggling away and in every which way, from Fort Hood to Boston, from addressing Quranic instructions taken seriously by such as Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, and others (Sura 9:29 generally suffices for one vivid example of explicit instruction and intention), and by including some key figures in his Administration, essentially absorbing and by demographics overwhelming an adverse presence.

Simply put, for Obama, so I believe, the world is larger than Islam — or an Islam as Osama Bin Laden would have it — and will wear away at the machinery set in motion by it.  However, taking this tortuously slow and steady route involves slim but telling differentiation and narrowing “true targets” — as those for the drone programs — to their minimum number.

Putin, perhaps, believes that so cautious and limited an approach will not work, not that he wants to step “in it” himself.

So between the two, Obama and Putin, NATO and Russia, and their spheres of influence, and this much with blessings from Iran, which is working with the Assad regime and with Hezbollah against Israel, and from Saudi Arabia, which believes it will pick up greater and Sunni-based regional influence, Syria has become a killing field from which the peaceful strive to flee and the warriors disarmed by their own glorious assessments of themselves haven’t the courage to transform themselves away from themselves and for the betterment of mankind and the pleasure, probably, of God as well.

With Maher al-Assad’s behavior and character associated with his military role noted worldwide and Bashar Assad’s, Obama’s, and Putin’s inability to address it, Syria has sunk into a devouring darkness.

Putin can neither finesse this play nor simply cleave the Gordian knot presented by Syria.

Obama, if I have got a little bit of his script about right — least war possible; court, engage, and prove the western way larger and more transforming than Islam; and goad Putin toward intervention — cannot stick with it much longer, essentially abetting the Saudi expansion of influence in a war zone in which both Shiite and Sunni extremists enjoy, so far, a fair amount of free range.

If the design has been to draw such forces into Syria’s abattoir and have them lead themselves to their own deaths through grinding mutual annihilation —  a rather gruesome form of cooperation, that — then all’s well: let’s just work on getting those displaced by war fed, housed, and ready to resume lives in the Syria that will be when the whole grizzly episode burns itself down to cinders.

# # #

Stratfor on Israel’s Strike Against A Syrian Weapons Center and Iranian Arms Shipping

07 Tuesday May 2013

Posted by commart in Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Israel, Middle East, Politics, Syria

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

analysis, ayatollah khamenei, bashar al assad, civil war, Islamic Small Wars, Israel, maher al assad, middle-east, political, politics, Syria

Let’s call what the politicians do the “Bloody Dog and Pony Show” because Iran’s attempts to shuttle weapons to Hezbollah and Syrian intentions to swipe at Israel have been a part of the country’s Arab Spring Screaming since the git-go.

Politically impotent potentates like Bashar al-Assad and Ayatollah Khamenei have with their self-indulging narcissistic zeal painted themselves into corners from which they cannot grow their state’s peaceful and productive capacities but rather, and primarily, wage war against all.  Their kind devour themselves but not without first inviting the destruction of everything around them.

As noted here, Syria’s chief problem has to do with the complete absence of anything good “in play” in the battle space.  Who today among the civilized, contained, and reasoning should care to support, essentially, Maher al-Assad’s established and continuing sadism?

Who of contemporary western bent should care to see the mixed bag of Islamist rebels, Al Qaeda among them, prevail?

Syria has become the dense sucking black star of the Islamic Small Wars.

None should be surprised about loose chemical warheads or rebels (allegedly) mixing up their own small batches of burning chlorine-based clouds.

Wikipedia’s report of deaths-to-date ascribed to the civil war: between 69,390 and 82,130.  “On 13 February 2013, the United Nations put out an estimate of 70,000 that had died in the war.”

Whatever figure you choose, it’s pretty bad.

And there’s no need to tidy up the Syrian slaughterhouse and its deep well of death with a figure – 70,000 – as fat and round as it is unfathomable: “A boy of 12 sees his best friend shot through the heart. Another of 15 is held in a cell with 150 other people, and taken out every day to be put in a giant wheel and burnt with cigarettes” (Reuters, March 13, 2013).

Presuming that most are not reading this “in-country”, imagine having that obscenity taking place in your backyard.

Countermeasures?

Fill the moats, drop the portcullis, and set free those birds with the baked clay!

All of that the Jews have done and continue to do in the defense of the children of Israel.

And truth to tell when faced with so devouring a black and burning hole in the fabric of our humanity globally as Syria has become, it is to the defense of humanity — all God’s children — for which the “Zionist entity” strikes at the weapons centers and shipments that would bring to the whole world nothing less than the same insensate burning.

Reference

AP.  “Israeli airstrikes add new wrinkle to US diplomacy, debate on greater Syria role.”  The Washington Post, May 7, 2013.

Greenwood, Phoebe.  “Israel’s Damascus attack kills ‘at least’ 15 troops from Bashar al-Assad’s elite Republican Guard.”  The Telegraph, May 7, 2013.

Holmes, Oliver.  “Syria’s children shot at, tortured, raped: charity report.”  Reuters, March 13, 2013.

Oweis, Khaled Yacoub.  “Assad’s brother, the muscle behind the throne.”  Reuters, July 18, 2012.

RT.  “US aims to arm Syrian rebels as Kerry seeks political support in Russia.”  May 7, 2013.

UPI.  “Syria: Israel blasts Hezbollah’s missile chain.”  May 6, 2013.

UPI.  “Syrian mortars land in Israel.”  May 7, 2013.

Wikipedia.  “Malignant narcissism”.

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Epigram

Hillel the Elder

"That which is distasteful to thee do not do to another. That is the whole of Torah. The rest is commentary. Now go and study."

"If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If I am not for others, what am I? If not now, when?"

"Whosoever destroys a soul, it is considered as if he destroyed an entire world. And whosoever that saves a life, it is considered as if he saved an entire world."

Oriana Fallaci
"Whether it comes from a despotic sovereign or an elected president, from a murderous general or a beloved leader, I see power as an inhuman and hateful phenomenon...I have always looked on disobedience toward the oppressive as the only way to use the miracle of having been born."

Talmud 7:16 as Quoted by Rishon Rishon in 2004
Qohelet Raba, 7:16

אכזרי סוף שנעשה אכזרי במקום רחמן

Kol mi shena`asa rahaman bimqom akhzari Sof shena`asa akhzari bimqom rahaman

All who are made to be compassionate in the place of the cruel In the end are made to be cruel in the place of the compassionate.

More colloquially translated: "Those who are kind to the cruel, in the end will be cruel to the kind."

Online Source: http://www.rishon-rishon.com/archives/044412.php

Abraham Isaac Kook

"The purely righteous do not complain about evil, rather they add justice.They do not complain about heresy, rather they add faith.They do not complain about ignorance, rather they add wisdom." From the pages of Arpilei Tohar.

Heinrich Heine
"Where books are burned, in the end people will be burned." -- From Almansor: A Tragedy (1823).

Simon Wiesenthal
Remark Made in the Ballroom of the Imperial Hotel, Vienna, Austria on the occasion of His 90th Birthday: "The Nazis are no more, but we are still here, singing and dancing."

Maimonides
"Truth does not become more true if the whole world were to accept it; nor does it become less true if the whole world were to reject it."

"The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision."

Douglas Adams
"Isn't it enough to see that a garden is beautiful without having to believe that there are fairies at the bottom of it too?" Epigram appearing in the dedication of Richard Dawkins' The GOD Delusion.

Thucydides
"The Nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools."

Milan Kundera
"The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting."

Malala Yousafzai
“The terrorists thought that they would change our aims and stop our ambitions but nothing changed in my life except this: weakness, fear and hopelessness died. Strength, power and courage was born.”

Tanit Nima Tinat
"Who could die of love?"

What I Have Said About the Jews

My people, not that I speak for them, I nonetheless describe as a "global ethnic commune with its heart in Jerusalem and soul in the Land of Israel."

We have never given up on God, nor have we ever given up on one another.

Many things we have given up, but no one misses, say, animal sacrifice, and as many things we have kept, so we have still to welcome our Sabbath on Friday at sunset and to rest all of Saturday until three stars appear in the sky.

Most of all, through 5,773 years, wherever life has taken us, through the greatest triumphs and the most awful tragedies, we have preserved our tribal identity and soul, and so shall we continue eternally.

Anti-Semitism / Anti-Zionism = Signal of Fascism

I may suggest that anti-Zionism / anti-Semitism are signal (a little bit) of fascist urges, and the Left -- I'm an old liberal: I know my heart -- has been vulnerable to manipulation by what appears to me as a "Red Brown Green Alliance" driven by a handful of powerful autocrats intent on sustaining a medieval worldview in service to their own glorification. (And there I will stop).
One hopes for knowledge to allay fear; one hopes for love to overmatch hate.

Too often, the security found in the parroting of a loyal lie outweighs the integrity to be earned in confronting and voicing an uncomfortable truth.

Those who make their followers believe absurdities may also make them commit atrocities.

Positively Orwellian: Comment Responding to Claim that the Arab Assault on Israel in 1948 Had Not Intended Annihilation

“Revisionism” is the most contemptible path that power takes to abet theft and hide shame by attempting to alter public perception of past events.

On Press Freedom, Commentary, and Journalism

In the free world, talent -- editors, graphic artists, researchers, writers -- gravitate toward the organizations that suit their interests and values. The result: high integrity and highly reliable reportage and both responsible and thoughtful reasoning.

This is not to suggest that partisan presses don't exist or that propaganda doesn't exist in the west, but any reader possessed of critical thinking ability and genuine independence -- not bought, not programmed -- is certainly free to evaluate the works of earnest reporters and scholars.

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