Monthly Archives: June 2013

Ayatollah Khamenei’s Basic Architecture of Power – Saeid Golkar’s Extraordinary Summary

13 Thursday Jun 2013

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Suppressing Independent Organizations

In addition to organizing its supporters into numerous networks, the Islamic Republic has long suppressed groups inside and outside the country that might in any way bolster opposition to the regime.44 This goes beyond overt and covert repression of active opposition movements such as the Mujahedin-e Khalq and the Freedom Movement of Iran (Nehzat-e Azadi-e Iran)—Tehran has also sought to undermine any social and cultural groups that could eventually pose a challenge. To achieve this goal, the regime pervasively represses civil society organizations and prevents individuals from establishing independent groups.45

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus125Golkar.pdf

Scholar Saeid Golkar’s publication has more to say as its works through what he views as Ayatollah’s Kahmenei’s core threat dimensions: threats from below, above, and external.

Next: Washington Institute senior fellow Mehdi Khalaji, who has been working on a biography about Ayatollah Kahmenei, provides his brief on politics inside Iran (delivered June 7, 2013).

TWI source: Golkar, Saeid and Mehdi Khalaji.  “The Islamic Republic’s Will to Survive: Likely Nuclear Resistance, Unlikely Social Revolt.”  The Washington Institute, June 12, 2013.

It appears operating a totalitarian state requires an expansive worry — or perhaps an “operating paranoia”, if you will — to ensure all opposition has been contained and channeled.  Whether or not all such have been contained and channeled, to judge from Golkar’s brief layout of regime security concerns, all the worries have been covered.  Especially chilling:

To counter external threats, the Islamic Republic has expanded its presence throughout the world, especially in the backyard of its perceived enemies, the United States and Israel. This includes maintaining influence in Syria, Lebanon, Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia. In shaping this resistance axis, the regime seeks to challenge America and Israel while also deterring them from attacking Iran . . . Western governments typically try to establish a process for disarming, demobilizing, and reintegrating militant groups. Tehran’s goal is the exact opposite — it tries to integrate, mobilize, and arm the people.

Other Reference

Ayed, Nahlah.  “Iran election: Why Canada will be watching closely.”  CBC News, June 12, 2013.

BBC.  “Iran after Ahmadinejad: The election in 90 seconds.”  Video.  June 12, 2013.

Dehghan, Saeed Kamali.  “Iran elections: death of Neda Agha-Soltan haunts voters.  The Guardian, June 13, 2013.  The reference includes a casualty list, compiled by Masih Alinejad, from the 2009 protests.

Turkey’s ‘Woodstock’ Moment – A Concert at Taksim Square

13 Thursday Jun 2013

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Riot police looked on from the fringes as crowds mingled late into the night, some protesters chanting and dancing, others applauding a concert pianist who took up residence with a grand piano in the middle of the square.

Tattersall, Nick and Jonathon Burch.  “Turkish protesters party in square despite ruling party call.”  Reuters, June 12, 2013.

From the same article: “Erdogan has accused foreign forces, international media and market speculators of stoking conflict and trying to undermine the economy of the only largely Muslim NATO state.”

Setting aside that mouthful I call “Facsimile Bipolar Political Sociopathy (FBPS)”, which may deal too much with motivation and personality and too little with “cognitive style” I’m starting to think autocrats internally muddled, unable to deal with criticism, open processes — including for Taksim Square specifically, urban development and land use planning — and the possibility that they themselves are a little bit a part of larger political and social issues.

American analog – Erdogan / Taksim: Nixon / Woodstock.

The Turkish youth are okay, and perhaps so is the state’s middle class.

Additional Reference

BBC.  “Turkey protests: Erdogan in ‘final’ warning.”  June 13, 2013.

Hacaoglu, Selcan and Ben Holland.  “Istanbul Protesters Hear Piano Concert as Calm Returns.”  Bloomberg Business Week, June 13, 2012.

Odds-N-Ends: Iran’s Upcoming Election

12 Wednesday Jun 2013

Posted by in Asia, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Fast News Share, Iran, Regions

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“Any one of these men picked by Khamenei will execute his orders,” the 80-year-old said in an interview in his house near Paris, where he has been exiled since 1981.

“The Republic is erasing itself in the face of the Leader.”

Reuters.  “Iran’s former president: Khamenei erasing elections.”  The Jerusalem Post, June 12, 2013.

A man who isolates himself seeks his own desire;
He rages against all wise judgment . . .

Before destruction the heart of a man is haughty,
And before honor is humility.

Proverbs 18:1 and 12, Bible Gateway.

Who in Iran will vote against their own will, against their own interests, against themselves?

Perhaps a few Iranians are mulling that question as I type.

Al Arabiya asks in its related header (June 11, 2013), “Does the president even matter?”

The article will go on to answer the question it has posed.

It seems there are nuts and bolts issues to be tackled by an Iranian president — inflation and unemployment, at least — but power ultimately resides with Ayatollah Khamenei by divine right.

From Washington, Iran Election Watch notably covers the candidates on their positions having to do with Iran’s nuclear programs (June 12, 2013): “Nuclear Issue Provokes Strong Reactions in Presidential Debate.”  The article quotes candidate Ali Akbar Velayati as saying, “We need to insist on our right to enrich uranium and at the same time act cleverly and avoid being perceived as whimpering by other countries.”

Perhaps its that “act cleverly” part that will spur some Iranians more concerned with inflation and unemployment to vote for other than Velayati.

Reporters Without Borders condemns an increase in the Iranian government’s harassment of Iranian journalists in the final days before the 14 June presidential election and the restrictions imposed on the few foreign journalists allowed into the country to cover it.

Reporters Without Borders (RWB).  “Harassment, Restrictions and Censorship Limit Election Coverage.”  June 12, 2013.

Manipulating elections neither fair nor free nor open, the Grand Peacock has perhaps exerted sufficient control over elections — by approving only a narrowed field of candidates and by managing the “Iran Curtain” to slow Internet traffic and reduce domestic and foreign media criticism and impact, which management seems to have included already the arrests of two domestic journalists (Omid Abdolvahabi and Hesamaldin Eslamlo, according to the RWB page cited) — to keep himself feeling good about himself.

Reporters Without Borders goes on to note, “Today is the second anniversary of Iran-e-Farda journalist Hoda Saber’s death in detention, 11 days after journalist and women’s rights activist Haleh Sahabi died as a result of the beating she received at her father’s funeral. No one has been arrested or tried for either of these deaths.”

In the atmosphere of such governance and unsolved political crime, one might ask Persians who intend to vote whether they mean to express preference at the polling stations or general approval of their country’s state of affairs.

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Syria – Children In War

12 Wednesday Jun 2013

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“UNITED NATIONS – Syrian troops and rebels are recruiting children to fight in the country’s civil war and some have been tortured by government forces for having links to the opposition, UN chief Ban Ki-moon said in a report on Wednesday.”  http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/UN-slams-Syrian-rebels-recruitment-of-children-316359

I touched on the topic of children in war — https://conflict-backchannels.com/2013/06/11/isw-children-in-the-war-news/ — spurred by atrocious reports of the murder of a young soul in Syria and a beheading of a boy by Taliban in Afghanistan (they didn’t take credit, but somebody did, and such comprises a crime unfathomable — and not “collateral damage”, that one, but some adult’s willful, premeditated act. # # #

 

FNS: CIA Director Morrell Resigns

12 Wednesday Jun 2013

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“Morell’s name has been in the news forremoving the references to terrorism in the Benghazi talking points amid a series of emails between the White House, State Department, and CIA after the attacks last fall. (Morell’s edits of the talking points at right.) But Morrell says he really is leaving to get more time at home.”  http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2013/06/mike-morrell-cia/66179/ 

Yo’Bama: What is going on in there?

I think the American Mind has been so constructed against duplicity — remember: we get Washington and the Cherry Tree when we’re about five years old, if not sooner — that anyone now involved in military and state intelligence probably reaches for the sick bag on the way down to Foggy Bottom or out to Langley.  The Administration may compromise integrity by promoting one narrative to the public and developing another “behind the curtains”.  Each subaltern has to look at himself in the mirror and ask whether what he’s been asked to do is the “American Way” or something dreadfully alien.

All that’s speculation, of course.

And it may cut both ways.  If Israel-Sunni cooperation serves to isolate the Ayatollah in Iran,  which isn’t so hard as he does so much work toward the end himself, should that news be shouted?

I don’t know.

However, as I trust in God, I trust that over time, whether we’re looking over Paul Biya’s Cameroon or criminal warfare in the Congo, the truth in factual data, statistics, and testimony will surface and merge and become evident to a global consciousness.

That doesn’t mean I don’t expect Robert Mugabe, for another example, to do other than pass away peacefully in his sleep and on his own schedule — but what internecine war awaits that sad state, and when it’s over — when everything is over, some day, in Zimbabwe — then what a picture the whole world will see as to what took place (behind the curtains).

Aside

“Now in an interview with theSouth China Morning

12 Wednesday Jun 2013

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“Now in an interview with theSouth China Morning Post, a newspaper in Chinese-controlled Hong Kong which is owned by the pro-Beijing billionaire Robert Kuok, he has disclosed what he describes as U.S. government efforts to penetrate computer networks in China and Hong Kong.” Commentary comments Snowden, imho, the world’s wildest intelligence asset gone wild.  http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2013/06/12/snowdens-quest-isnt-about-civil-liberties/  In the Global Intra-Neural Networks Race (GINN!), everyone is trying to get into everyone else’s national mind.  Amazing.  I am so glad I am not Snowden . . . . I’m sure the guys down the road at Meade have taken appropriate countermeasures.

A Glance at RT’s Coverage of Turkish Protests

12 Wednesday Jun 2013

Posted by in Asia, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Regions, Turkey

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“We were patient, we will be patient, but there is an end to patience, and those who play politics by hiding behind the protesters should first learn what politics means,” Erdogan said.

Protesters have accused Erdogan of becoming authoritarian during his 10 years in power and attempting to impose the Islamization of Turkey, which is currently governed by secular laws. Erdogan brushed off the accusations, calling himself a “servant” of his people.

RT.  “Turkey police crush protests, govt refuses to resign (PHOTOS, VIDEO)”.  June 10, 2013.

For his post-Kamalist autocratic methods, Erdogan makes an easy foil for the political opposition not only in Turkey but, opposite NATO (over Syria, lately), in Russia too.

As popular demonstrations attract everyone with a political bone to pick — or youthful and wild energy to expend — they can get out of hand to the point where authority (of any kind) must intervene with force.  So here one may ask: apart from the Turkish middle class and whatever known fringes may be familiar to the Turkish political scene, who else may have been in that crowd?

And who put them there?

Ah, the gate opens to wild speculations.

To trim that some, I thought we might look together at RT‘s coverage of the story.

“There is now a menace which is called Twitter,” Erdogan said on Sunday, dismissing the protests as organized by extreme elements. “The best examples of lies can be found there. To me, social media is the worst menace to society.”

RT.  “Turkish activists rail against media for ignoring protests, police brutality.”  June 5, 2011.

Turkish police have taken several dozen lawyers into custody for joining the ongoing protests. The arrests in Istanbul come as police launched a crackdown on protesters in the city’s Taksim Square.

RT. “Turkish police ‘attack’ protesting lawyers at courthouse, many arrests (VIDEO).”  June 11, 2013.

If you were the Russian autocrat, would you not wish to fan the flames beating at the bottom of the Turkish one?

Perhaps “yes”, but I’m not certain I would have to work hard, or even at all, to play up the drama, disrupt Erdogan’s Administration, and, just a jogging bit, shake the NATO tree.

RT has put up a live updates pate on the Turkish protests, but this last seems to feature the same timbre in headlining that seems to me also . . . fair:

“There are serious clashes in the small streets surrounding the square. They are running after each other tossing stones, bottles and smoke grenades there. It’s a real meat grinder in there,” reports RT’s Ashraf El Sabbagh.

RT.  “Turkish police oust Taksim protesters with tear gas as Erdogan cheers removal of ‘rags’.”  June 11, 2013.

Is the statement embedded in the RT article inflammatory or just plain good dramatic reporting?

My call: the latter.

Autocratic regimes or ones drifting in that direction — I would not write differently about Putin’s — do it to themselves.  The more they feel they control in their spheres — and control is what autocrats and “malignant narcissists” are all about, that plus themselves, their image, their glory — and the more they extend that control into the reasonable provinces of constituent life, the more resentment they sow and, over time, the more chaos too when those resentments surface from multiple constituencies, including those with whom they have dealt with a heavy hand.

Frankly, the story more prevalent in the news I’ve been encountering along the way seems to be the Turkish media’s blackout on the protests.

Additional Reference

Al Jazeera English.  “Turkey’s media: Caught in the wheels of power?”  June 8, 2013.

Oktem, Kerem.  “Why Turkey’s mainstream media chose to show penguins rather than protests.”  The Guardian, June 9, 2013.

The Voice of Russia.  “Turkey unrest: ‘Turkish spring’ or just a seasonal storm?”  June 2, 2013:

Tarasov also names the government-led soft Islamization as a possible reason. Some people didn’t like plans to demolish the Ataturk Cultural Center and build a mosque at the site, thus neglecting the heritage and legacy of the first President of Turkey Kemal Ataturk.