Prompt: In relation to hostilities involving regional American assets associated with the Strait of Hormuz, please brief me on Iranian attacks–up to a dozen (if there have been that many_–in declining order of significance.
AI: The fragile truce established under the June 17, 2026 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has fractured into a highly volatile cycle of kinetic escalation. Tehran is aggressively attempting to leverage its geographic position to assert total hegemonic control over the Strait of Hormuz—de facto shifting from a sovereign coastal gatekeeper to an armed protection racket by demanding transit fees and dictating mandatory shipping lanes.
The following is a structured evaluation of the recent core Iranian actions against regional American assets and commercial infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz, ranked in declining order of tactical, strategic, and regional significance.
1. Mass Retaliatory Ballistic Missile Salvo Against U.S. Forward Bases (July 11–12, 2026)
Target Infrastructure: U.S. Military Installations across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region—specifically Prince Hassan Air Base (Jordan), and assets in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.
Tactical Execution: Massive multi-axis strike utilizing precision-guided ballistic missiles and long-range attack drones launched directly by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and conventional armed forces.
Operational & Cultural Impact: This represents the highest escalation rung. The strike on Jordan’s Prince Hassan Air Base directly destroyed the facility’s command-and-control center and MQ-9 Reaper drone hangars. By striking Qatar (which has acted as a primary diplomatic mediator) and Oman, Iran is linguistically and kinetically signaling that “neutrality” is no longer recognized. It forces regional host nations into the crossfire of the broader U.S.-Iran conflict.
2. Kinetic Strike and Destruction of the M/V GFS Galaxy (July 11, 2026)
Tactical Execution: Anti-ship projectile strike executed 9 nautical miles east of Oman, targeted deliberately at the vessel’s stern.
Operational & Cultural Impact: The attack caused devastating fires and extensive engine room destruction, forcing the civilian crew to abandon ship. This is the most destructive single commercial asset hit since the February-to-May war window. It triggered a massive U.S. counter-response (the third and fourth waves of intense CENTCOM airstrikes, hitting roughly 140 Iranian military targets). It demonstrated Tehran’s absolute willingness to enforce its self-declared “indefinite closure” of the Strait through total ship destruction.
3. Drone Attack on the Qatari LNG Carrier Al Rekayyat (July 6, 2026)
Target Infrastructure: Qatari-flagged Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) carrier Al Rekayyat (IMO: 9397339).
Tactical Execution: Loitering munition (suicide drone) precision strike hitting the top port side near the engine room as the ship traveled south near Limah, Oman.
Operational & Cultural Impact: This attack holds profound geopolitical weight because it marks the first time a Qatari asset has been directly targeted. Qatar’s role as the indispensable diplomatic backchannel between Washington and Tehran was structurally violated by this strike. The attack signaled that Tehran values immediate tactical dominion over the waterway above the preservation of its primary diplomatic conduit, sparking severe diplomatic protests from Doha.
4. Coordinated Strike on the Saudi Crude Tanker Wedyan (July 6, 2026)
Target Infrastructure: Saudi Arabia-flagged crude tanker Wedyan (IMO: 9524970).
Tactical Execution: Coordinated drone/projectile strike executed within hours of the Al Rekayyat hit.
Operational & Cultural Impact: Directly striking a high-value Saudi energy asset tests the limits of regional security and threatens global energy supply continuity. This action forced Riyadh to hold Tehran fully liable for regional navigation disruptions, undermining regional detente and freezing normalization discussions.
5. Interception and Kinetic Targeting of the Cyprus Prosperity (July 7, 2026)
Tactical Execution: Multi-boat harassment swarm followed by a projectile strike to halt the vessel.
Operational & Cultural Impact: Part of the initial “triple-play” wave on July 6–7 that shattered the post-war calm. It proved that Iran was running an organized campaign to systematically target any vessel deviating from its unauthorized, unilaterally imposed shipping lanes.
6. The Forced Halting and Seizure of Multi-National Merchant Ships (July 11, 2026)
Target Infrastructure: Two unnamed commercial vessels transiting the international corridor.
Tactical Execution: IRGC Navy small-boat swarms fired direct “warning shots,” boarded, and forcefully brought the ships to a halt under the guise of the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority.
Operational & Cultural Impact: Semantically, Iran framed this as routine maritime law enforcement against “offending vessels that switched off onboard systems.” In reality, it acts as a enforcement mechanism for their protection racket—using kinetic coercion to compel global shipping companies to submit transit requests to Tehran and pay transit tariffs.
7. IRGC Naval Swarming and Electronic Warfare Harassment of U.S. Surface Vessels (Ongoing, July 2026)
Target Infrastructure: U.S. Central Command / U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet surface assets patrolling the southern shipping highway.
Tactical Execution: Aggressive maneuvers by IRGC fast-attack craft (FAC) backed by localized GPS jamming and electronic spoofing along the Omani coast.
Operational & Cultural Impact: While lower on the scale of direct structural destruction, these asymmetric provocations are designed to test U.S. rules of engagement (ROE). Iran uses these encounters for internal propaganda, attempting to project local maritime supremacy and signal to domestic audiences that the “era of one-sided deals is over,” as stated by Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Analysis
From a cultural and deep intelligence standpoint, the current Iranian offensive demonstrates a highly calculated linguistic and operational pivot. Tehran is redefining the concept of “sovereignty” over international waters. By standing up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority in May and attempting to enforce mandatory tolls, the regime is trying to normalize its dominion over a global chokepoint.
The attacks are intentionally designed to exploit the physical geography of the Omani coastline. While Oman attempts to offer a expanded “southern highway” corridor to keep traffic safe from Iranian shores, Iran is actively using kinetic strikes within Oman’s maritime vicinity to show that no alternative route exists without their explicit, paid permission. This effectively traps regional commerce in a paradigm where they must either risk catastrophic hull loss or succumb to Iranian extortion.
AI Accessed Reference
This may be partial to the above AI-generated military and political analysis. For breadth, depth, and speed, this human — J. S. Oppenheim, editor of this BackChannels blog — is no match for the AI, which appears to me an independent intelligence however disembodied and “directed” by mathematical programming.
I had asked AI to elaborate on the tension between medieval politics and modern–>
The tension between “medieval” and “modern” politics is a highly accurate framework for analyzing contemporary democratic friction. This conceptual clash does not mean a literal return to the Middle Ages, but rather a structural battle between two fundamentally incompatible philosophies of governance and power.
One side treats the state as a rule-based machine, while the other treats it as a private fiefdom.
The Core Friction: Personal Fiefdom vs. Institutional Rule
The “#MedievalVModern” dichotomy can be broken down into specific operational clashes that define current political instability:
Dimension
“Medieval” Politics
“Modern” Politics
Source of Authority
Personal loyalty, fealty oaths, and blood/chosen dynastic ties.
Institutional roles, constitutional text, and bureaucratic merit.
Nature of Public Funds
Treasury is a personal slush fund to reward allies and punish rivals.
Public revenue strictly separated from private wealth via oversight.
The Legal System
Sovereign immunity; the ruler is the law and hands out selective pardons.
The rule of law; laws apply equally to the ruler and the citizenry.
Communication
Direct, tribal appeals based on identity, protection, and absolute decree.
Policy debates filtered through open press and statutory processes.
1. The Medieval Side: The Rise of Neo-Feudalism
When political commentators identify “medieval” tendencies in modern leaders, they are looking at the deliberate dismantling of modern, rules-based institutions in favor of personal networks.
Patronage and Fealty: In a neo-feudal system, career expertise is replaced by absolute loyalty. Government officials are treated like vassals. Protection, promotions, and pardons are granted not based on law, but on how fiercely a subordinate defends the “lord” of the system.
The Sovereign is Above the Law: Absolute immunity and the sweeping use of executive pardons mirror the medieval concept of Rex Lex (The King is Law). When courts rule that a leader’s official acts cannot be prosecuted, the system shifts backward toward an era where the ruler’s personhood dictates what is legal.
Weaponized Dependency: Just as medieval peasants relied on a local lord for protection against outside threats, a modern patronage system manufactures tribal fear—casting the leader as the sole defender against perceived cultural or political enemies.
2. The Modern Side: Constitutional Meritocracy
Modern politics, born out of the Enlightenment and codified in the U.S. Constitution, was explicitly designed to kill medieval feudalism.
Separation of Powers: Modernity assumes that human beings are fundamentally flawed and power-hungry. Instead of trusting a single ruler, it distributes power across competing branches (the Senate, the Courts, the Executive) to create friction.
Institutional Memory: A modern state relies on objective, non-partisan civil servants, military officers, and judges who owe their allegiance to an abstract document (the Constitution), not to the shifting fortunes of an individual politician.
Transparency and Accountability: Modern governance requires open records, independent inspectors general, and a free press to prevent the state’s wealth from being funneled into private pockets.
Why This Tension Matters Today
The current crisis in American politics exists because both systems are currently operating simultaneously within the same government.
When a Senator attempts to use committee oversight or a military officer relies on the “lawful order” standard, they are operating in the modern framework. When an executive bypasses Congress, appoints family members to financial posts, and cleanses criminal dockets via sweeping pardons, they are operating in the medieval framework.
The primary danger of this tension is that the medieval model is inherently more agile; it requires only one willful ruler to function. The modern model is fragile; it requires thousands of independent actors to continuously choose their constitutional oaths over partisan self-interest.
No hurry. Set the mood. I have advanced in age and have a cold, the sort that makes one grateful for an old Windows machine, fresh coffee, delivery services, reliable heat and air conditioning, and a mess that might be made smaller by going through it and conveying much of it to the thrifts or a dumpster. Retirement (I don’t know from what) suggests letting the world move on, but here I’d ratheri suggest mentally preparing for the agony in defeat of the world’s two biggest jerks: American criminal and traitor Donald John Trump and Russian (and Ukrainian) apartment slayer Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, conventionally the two most powerful men in the world, psychologically the two most archaic mafioso nut jobs — paranoid-delusions malignant narcissism — in the world and, possibly, in world history (but give the adolescent Caligula due for leaving his marks spattering backward across more noble Roman history).
Both Putin and Trump telegraph their intentions through each his own working up to the big moment. One sends in the “Little Green Men“; the other promises “fixed” elections. In the short term of the month now passing behind us, Putin held in Belarus exercises demonstrating Moscow’s ability to coordinate military with nuclear assets, and as that phases complete, he returned to his unconscionable practice of obliterating apartment buildings and shopping malls in Kyiv. The deranged barbarian’s message appears to have been clear: surrender now, or I may cause you greater and unimaginable pain. The man who shields himself with his own vainglory appears neither to respect Russia, Russians, or himself, and so demands that all bow to him for his holding power over their lives–but for all that–and on the inside–he’s just another thug barely off the street.
So, and yes, I worry about Putin’s decision to escalate on his demolition-or-surrender project in Ukraine, and not that he would stop at that if he got it: he’s a junkie for arranged (forced) public adoration and validation (his narcissistic supply) and with it, absolute control and power, enough to keep himself and the criminal system that would outlive him jacked forever on tribute exacted according to his favor–or in relation to his power to intimidate his marks and thieve from the same with impunity.
As regards The Donald . . . his ignorant, lawless, and reckless stupidity have created conditions — soon to be hardships — in America guaranteed to show off the best of his criminal and piratical characteristics. He hasn’t liberated any critically reasoning and decent Americans, MAGA Americans least of all, but rather put in place all the sources of cultural and financial insecurity set to trigger a maelstrom. His medieval and weirdly Quixotic “war” on Iran has failed completely by giving Iran the power to control the Strait of Hormuz with credible threats to shipping, and that one stupidity will have farmers going out of business in America, commuters losing their discretionary spending headroom, and for consumers a retail inflation impossible to control. The ill-educated, ignoble, and ill-prepared lout in the wheelhouse will address the unwinding tragedy with fraudulent remarks — blame Obama! blame Biden! blame Roosevelt! in fact, blame all the Demoncrats! He didn’t do nothin’, ain’t that right boss? — but, and one may hope sooner than later, the best and brightest dismissed from their career passions will have to be recalled by more noble power to their positions–and may all such rise to the occasion. —— For a daily dip into the economic indicators of the nation, I recommend a listen to Miami realtor Michael Bordenaro’s daily walk-and-talk.
Ours is an age in which everyone (online) may look up everything (OSINT) for any purpose evil or good at any time. For years now and living a “life online”, I have asked myself with so much “content” available through a fancy television screen, where to dwell? Add an earnest “why?” In the coverage of conflict–or curiosity about it–from the web’s second row seat to history there are of course the dots between events and places, the inflection points newly minted in a year–or a week or day–and the things a generation may–or must–never forget, e.g., the Rubicon, Auschwitz, Pearl Harbor, and 9/11 of their youth, but what is the choosing, clicking, scrolling point for the mind at the monitor?
For a small portion of the world beyond basic needs–cash flow is good, discretionary time is what we have, abundance in some measure small or great–the point becomes interesting. A modern Muslim woman, Qanta Ahmed asked me on Facebook decades ago (so it feels) after having registered her account, “What now?” My answer had been “Good influence.” I believe she has done her part–and I mine.
What now?
The answer for me has been one person’s diplomacy. The opportunity to read foreign newspapers in English, to make friends nine thousand miles away who would become better known than the neighbor in the apartment on the other side of the office wall–but for whom one could do nothing in a pinch–would build out one’s social media community. That was back in the Facebook uptake era. Then along came everything else and, well, X marked the spot!
And X has been the spot for responding to power and the tensions between the ambitions and attitudes of some wealthy, the arrangements made by power medieval–as well as brutal and unconscionable–and the aspirations and values of a nation blessed with valuing its own humanity and related dignity, freedom, and security. And then along came Donald–and DOGE–and the emergence of fuzzy philosophers dreaming of Tech Bro empires and new relationships between a plutocracy of programmers and the needs and wants of comparatively hapless consumers of “content” and other stuff.
The heady early days seem to me no longer new and novel–not even the “Tube” sites of the flesh trade–and all of the governments in attendance (I’m sure) watching decision patterns and trees for even that.
Ain’t it grand?
It turns out the “second row”–mediated–seat to history may be as well a space cordoned (almost) from life, but then even souls living through their screens have to step away and step out for fresh air and a good restaurant now and then.
Softshell Crab Sandwich, The Grille at Runways, HGR, Hagerstown, Maryland, May 2, 2026
And now what?
X has become a daily battle with bots, trolls, and indefinite fake names weighing in from their VPN locations (no doubt), and potentially for purposes as insidious as their being unknown and possibly unidentifiable. Then too, especially for me, there’s been the hash slung repeatedly toward every pair of eyeballs who didn’t get it — or believe it — on the first round: #AmericaForSale; #AmericaUnderAssault (good entry: welcome to my world!) all the way to where we really are (so I believe): #StateCapture / #StatePiracy. The epiphanies no longer leave me breathless but rather yawning it all back for having been repeated too often for too long.
Shall there be here a “Dining for Diplomats” section for the Washingtonians (who really may be diplomats)? And what happened to the sound track? America . . . Born in the USA . . . The Secret of Life . . . . Everyone of us — Americans — has his own. That’s our freedom . . . our individualism . . . our choice to choose how we grow our persons inside and out. Upstairs? Tabulation. Tell the universe what you want — Amazon will have it slipped into your shopping experience right soon.
With the #PhantomOfTheSoviet playing a fading devil and #IllTrumpolini providing an object lesson in #MalignantNarcissism — and this blog becoming weirdly hybrid with hashtags — Qanta’s “What now” has transitioned fully into two major questions, one public and an echo from history: “What is to be done!?” (Query AI on the famous Russian question). And the other personal: “What am I doing here? What’s my hunt, my role, my mission, my purpose? So I jump (virtually) in the air shaking my fists over my head before a distant, virtual, absent–from my space but not cyberspace– Michael McFaul who has posted a note on X expressing hope that the next President will be different without fully comprehending the challenges posed by having a piratical feudal-medieval mafia chief in the wheelhouse of the American Ship O’ State promising his portion of the Christian base relief from elections forever after: ““It’ll be fixed. It’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore my beautiful Christians . . . in four years you don’t have to vote again, we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.”
Putin is an enemy of freedom and a supporter of dictatorship. That's why he invaded Ukraine and is aiding Iran.
The U.S. should be a friend of freedom and a supporter of democracy.
Trump doesn't understand this basic mission for our great country. I hope future leaders will.
While true, “Trump doesn’t understand this basic mission for our great country,” he understands being a chief with his own system of private patronage (#PPS on X) and all the methods attending criminally ruthless power from blackmail, bribery, and intimidation to the promising of generous rewards in exchange for loyalty, obedience, and silence.
What Donald Trump does — and what he has done to take America down — has been as obvious as it has been ugly. Check the list for his large targets or mishaps with tariffs: American agriculture, counterintelligence, election security, health, humanitarian aid, justice, natural resources, etc.
Whine it out on X, fashion the barbs that make the snark, send hints to those who know them, perhaps, but come forward from the curtains keeping the darker realities out of sight, the reckless, unresponsive, upside-down, and surreal Trump and his Trumpian Theater will just get right on to the next dumb move, the sort now paving the way toward national financial arrest, debilitating desperation, probably related crime (we shall see), and the unholy trinity leftover from Soviet post-Soviet Russian barbarity and stupidity: enserfment, gulag, and Soviet-style totalitarian surveillance. ICE will need work; the private prison system may appreciate a little expansion money; and the technology for observing or tracking everyone at all times might well exist —
Creating detailed portraits of Americans based on government data is not just a pipe dream. The Trump administration has already sought access to hundreds of data points on citizens and others through government databases, including their bank account numbers, the amount of their student debt, their medical claims and any disability status.
Mr. Trump could potentially use such information to advance his political agenda by policing immigrants and punishing critics, Democratic lawmakers and critics have said. Privacy advocates, student unions and labor rights organizations have filed lawsuits to block data access, questioning whether the government could weaponize people’s personal information.
Archaic, Criminal, Irrelevant, Medieval
My X-ing has been for some time a routine . . . another program involving a repetitious rollout of arguments, memes, and related talking points. Let’s leave this most egregious of observations here: the above faces defend and reflect in their game-faced hardness an outlook better fit with the worst barbarities of medieval power and related treachery than with anything like modern compassionate, responsible, responsive, and trustworthy governance. Whatever the wreckage each has left or will leave behind, they are together representatives of all that belongs behind us and none of what any should want waiting in the near future.
The good news: Russia is collapsing. It’s banks feel the heavy squeeze; it can’t abet the defense of any alley while it falls; and it is watching its Soviet / post-Soviet spheres of state control and influence contract and dissolve.
The bad news: Donald Trump has initiated adverse processes that will coarse through the networks of absolute power, crime, and terror for years to come. Worse–and in the interest of his own grasp on power–he has stripped away some portion of America’s most accomplished, experienced, and knowledgeable counterintelligence / counterterrorism professionals and put in their place favored unqualified associates, family, and, in general, sycophants. He may not be solving the nation’s defense and security challenges as much as defining it as himself, i.e., another paranoid-delusional dictator calling critics criminals while acting to aggrandize and enrich himself at every opportunity.
TrumpPutin have never been about the interests of their respective states but rather #TheMoney and the development of their own power to alter, erase, and shape public reality for their own emotional defense. The two have been life-long cowards and criminals and have made their marks political criminals–as thieving dictators–beyond the reach of their own societies.
For #Americans, #AmericanPoliticians, and #AmericanMilitaryAndPolice, most to all in each class have sworn on oath to defend our #AmericanConstitution and related principles and values. It would seem the same have now to rise to the challenges presented by a rogue #AmericanPresident.
Below: the archaic; the criminal; the hated; and the standard bearers of a discarded feudal past wholly without virtue, for they are neither of them noble or even good.
And then the images shown on the X post.
Here: Putin over Trump as each criminal and political criminal will be portrayed in Russian and American eternal memory; a tile popular when Trump’s Georgia election fixing case was hot news; an illustration detailing the locations at Mar A Lago of boxes loaded with classified, secret, and top secret Federal government documents to which Trump had not been entitled; and the last a popular meme illustrating Trump’s rape of America. The truth about Mafia Don: he has been all his life a privateer associated with organized crime. Most notable for his apprenticeship at the git-go: mob lawyer Roy Cohn; mafioso Fat Tony Salerno.
You know the Russian's question and how Russians have answered it (twice, and with awful results). Let's make it an American question: what is to be done?#AmericanMilitaryAndPolice take note.
The two posts are presented here in plain text in reverse order,i.e., the latest appears first.
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“Clearly, the US lacks the rule of law for people of wealth & power. How can that be accepted?!”
It’s not accepted, #AndersÅslund. #WeAreAmericans and have been hijacked (#StateCapture / #StatePiracy). I believe we have been boarded, commandeered, disarmed, and now looted (as #Putin has done to #Russians). Our corruption and our wealthy–and the two may be related–have paved the way for the criminal in office.
NATO #Article5 appears to have been born in the more conventional and observable conventional context of “denied territory”, but this #AssaultOnAmerica comes through perhaps extremist and rogue financial forces. #EyesWideShut? Our Catholic-majority Supreme Court, the dumb permit given the President by Justice Roberts, the long #KGB #TrumpPutin relationship and #Moscow’s #ActiveMeasures appear to have worked. The growth of the Russian oligarchy beneath Putin’s favored associates and family first #PrivatePatronageSystem and here in #America the arrival of a class of super-wealthy willing to pay tribute to Trump suggest the worse.
The wages of greed coupled with world’s most advanced science and technology . . . . it amounts to an invisible hell supported by occult wealthy and led by a deranged criminals versed in mafia rules.
The spirit of the #AtlanticAlliance – of #NATO – should be brought to bear because we did not vote–not even the most strident of #MAGA voted–to destroy our modern #AmericanSecularDemocraticRepublic.
I have no passage through to power except here on X, so I hope some will take my note seriously. J. S. Oppenheim / James S. Oppenheim – https://conflict-backchannels.com/.
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You know the Russian’s question and how Russians have answered it (twice, and with awful results). Let’s make it an American question: what is to be done?
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