Tag Archives: Russia

Putin’s World – Not So Excellent . . . .

01 Thursday Dec 2016

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Posted to YouTube by The National, April 18, 2016.

According to the updated forecast of Economic Development Ministry for 2016, the decline of Russia’s GDP will amount to 0.6%. According to the basic forecast for 2017-2019, the economy will start to grow: GDP will grow by 0.2% in 2017 by 0.9% in 2018 and by 1.2% in 2019. According to the “basic plus” forecast, that the ministry considered to be the most realistic, the economy will grow by 1.1%, 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in the next three years.

http://tass.com/economy/916092 – 12/1/2016

An average of 19.2 million Russians – or 13.4% of the population – were living last year on less than 9,452 roubles ($139) a month, the minimum subsistence level determined by the Russian government in the fourth quarter.

This figure represents a 20% increase year-on-year, with an average 16.1 million people living below the poverty threshold in 2014.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/22/millions-more-russians-living-in-poverty-as-economic-crisis-bites – 3/21/2016.

Almost one in five respondents (17 percent) have had problems with delayed wage packets, while 16 percent expected delays in the coming months.

Some 18 percent said that that they relied on help from the state — a level not seen since 2008.

https://themoscowtimes.com/news/80-of-russians-feeling-countrys-economic-decline-55476 – 9/26/2016.

New numbers may become available for popular web searching at year’s end, but nothing BackChannels has turned up suggests conditions will improve anytime soon.  However, one report (listed in this post’s reference) on Russia’s military economy linked a boost in defense sales numbers to the demonstration in Syria of Moscow’s latest war fighting technology.

 

Where has Russia’s wealth fled?

Over the course of years, “capital flight” from Russia has been disastrous for Moscow.

2015: $58.9 billion
2014: $151.5 billion
2013: $61 billion

The URL’s go direct to source.

BackChannels has seen President Putin encourage the return of capital to Russia’s internal economy, and, still recent in the news, perceives effort to sell Russian capability to business.

Still, there remain the black marks of “unfreedom” (reference the Freedom House listing for Russia), apparent war crimes in Syria, and obvious aggression in the invention and deployment of “hybrid warfare” — and otherwise conventional enough machinery — in Crimea, Ukraine, which is today, literally, a very tense situation.

If BackChannels were part of a multi-billion dollar enterprise, it too might wish to park some largesse in old fashioned rule-of-law London (along with other wealthy — and wise — of the world).

Posted to YouTube by Real Stories, September 13, 2016.

Additional Reference

AFP.  “Russia capital flight more than doubled in 2014 to $151 bn.”  Business Insider, January 19, 2015.

Mugg, James.  “The One Chart That Russia’s Military Should Be Very Afraid Of.”  The National Interest, November 26, 2016.

Oliphant, Roland. “Russia deploys warships near Crimea as Ukraine fires missiles in air defence drill.”  The Telegraph, December 1, 2016.

Posen, Barry R.  “How to Think About Russia.”  The National Interest, November 29, 2016.

Putin, Vladimir.  “Russia Calling!  Investment Forum.”  President of Russia, Kremlin, October 12, 2016.

Rogin, Josh.  “Putin and Assad could face justice for war crimes in Syria.”  The Washington Post, October 9, 2016.

Tanas, Olga and Andre Tartar.  “Putin Favoring Military Picks Guns Over Schools, Hospitals”.  Bloomberg, September 12, 2016.

The Moscow Times.  “Russian Capital Outflow Hit $59 Billion Last Year.”   January 18, 2016.

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Moscow’s Rules — A Module

23 Wednesday Nov 2016

Posted by in 21st Century Feudal, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, FTAC - From The Awesome Conversation, Islamic Small Wars, Israel, Russia

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This thin post telegraphs in web links a few of the essentials about President Putin’s Soviet / post-Soviet ultra-nationalist neo-imperial Russian project and revanche.  For the viewer, it may work as a portal both into related posts on BackChannels as well as a channel out for greater web-bound curiosity.

Agitation and Propaganda

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures

http://www.statecraft.org.uk/research/russian-active-measures-modernised-tradition

Recently ‘Also in Media’:

Weiss, Michael.  “Russia’s Long History of Messing With Americans Minds Before the DNC Hack.”  The Daily Beast, July 26, 2016.

Related:

Weiss, Michael and Peter Pomerantsev.  “The Menace of Unreality: How the Kremlin Weaponizes Information, Culture, and Money.”  The Interpreter, November 22, 2014.

Heritage Foundation.  “Propaganda, Disinformation, and Dirty Tricks: The Resurgence of Russian Political Warfare.”  Features YouTube event recording (1:53:40).  Host: Helle C. Dale; speakers: John Lenczowski, Paul Goble, and Ariel Cohen.  April 21, 2014.

Freedom

https://freedomhouse.org/country/russia

Middle East Conflict

https://conflict-backchannels.com/2016/10/03/palestinian-kgb/

Moscow Apartment Bombings

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439060/vladimir-putin-1999-russian-apartment-house-bombings-was-putin-responsible

Russian Orthodox Church

The ROC has made billions from trading concessions granted to it by the government. It is increasingly asserting its position as the largest of the 14 self-governing Orthodox Churches and is using its political muscle in support of Putin’s aims. It’s no friend to evangelicals, especially in the Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, seeing them as puppets of the West.

But how has it become so powerful – and how is it using its power?

http://www.christiantoday.com/article/how.the.russian.orthodox.church.is.backing.vladimir.putins.new.world.order/81108.htm – 3/3/2016.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the church received official privileges including the right to import duty-free alcohol and tobacco. In 1995, the Nikolo-Ugreshky Monastery, which is directly subordinated to the patriarchate, earned $350 million from the sale of alcohol. The patriarchate’s department of foreign church relations, which Kirill ran, earned $75 million from the sale of tobacco. But the patriarchate reported an annual budget in 1995-1996 of only $2 million. Kirill’s personal wealth was estimated by the Moscow News in 2006 to be $4 billion.

During this period, the church has been silent about genuine moral issues, such as Russia’s pervasive corruption and the indiscriminate killing of noncombatants in Chechnya. As Kirill begins his reign as patriarch, there is little reason to expect this to change.

Yakov Krotov, a liberal Russian Orthodox priest, recently compared Kirill to a “court Jew,” like Peter Shafirov, the foreign policy aide to Peter the Great. The role of the court Jew, according to Krotov, is to put a civilized face on a repressive system.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/20/putin-solzhenitsyn-kirill-russia-opinions-contributors_orthodox_church.html – 2/20/2009.

Security State

http://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-resurrects-the-kgb-moscow-security/

Soviet Era

https://conflict-backchannels.com/library/russian-section/

Terrorism – Fast Links

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_and_the_Soviet_Union

https://conflict-backchannels.com/2016/11/12/ftac-how-isil-developed/

http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-the-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/

https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2015/09/08/how-russia-manipulates-islamic-terrorism/

http://www.rferl.org/a/soviet-islamist-terrorism-israel-america-disinformation-pacepa/25034290.html

Standard Reference

Piontovsky, Andrei.  “Putin Using All Means Against the West — including Islamist Terrorism — Piontovsky Says.”  The Interpreter, December 12, 2016.

Rosenfeld, Jesse.  “Russia is Arming Hezbollah, Say Two of the Group’s Field Commanders.”  The Daily Beast, January 11, 2016.

Satter, David.  “Putin is No Partner on Terrorism: It’s a Mistake for Washington to Count Moscow an Ally.”  Foreign Affairs, December 22, 2016.

FTAC – A Post as Module

https://conflict-backchannels.com/2016/10/03/palestinian-kgb/
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439060/vladimir-putin-1999-russian-apartment-house-bombings-was-putin-responsible
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_and_the_Soviet_Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures
http://Politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-resurrects-the-kgb-moscow-security/
https://freedomhouse.org/country/russia

In effect, Moscow, with its penchant for total control, bears responsibility for using the Palestinian refugees to block western democratic and open society (with free press) expansion while also milking the world under the guise of a good deed.

Moscow (Bogdanov) has met with PFLP in recent years (November 2014) and continues to refuse to designate Hamas as a terrorist organization.

In Syria, and keeping with its “total control” outlook, it appears that Assad himself incubated ISIL as an element that could be used to blackmail and goad the west.

https://conflict-backchannels.com/2016/11/12/ftac-how-isil-developed/
https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2015/09/08/how-russia-manipulates-islamic-terrorism/

Examine, query, test each URL. As a post on Facebook, the cited URLs taken together tell a story about Putin’s Soviet / post-Soviet transformation of Russia into an ultra-nationalist neo-imperial dictatorship.

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Syria – Russia’s Barbarism – The Hospitals

18 Friday Nov 2016

Posted by in 21st Century Feudal, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Islamic Small Wars, Political Psychology, Politics, Russia, Syria

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The last children’s hospital in besieged Aleppo has suspended operations after a brutal “double-tap” bombing.

A wave of airstrikes targeted medics in the rebel-held eastern district as they treated dozens of children who had been hit with chemical attacks.

Doctors and patients fled to the basement as more than 20 barrel bombs pounded the centre on Wednesday morning.

But less than 48 hours later two missiles tore through the unit as staff carried-out a clean-up operation.

Video footage shows the terrifying moment nurses pulled new-born babies from their incubators and fought their way through the dust and debris in search of safety.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/last-childrens-hospital-aleppo-forced-9293119 – 11/19/2016.

The Independent Doctors Association, a medical group, said barrel bomb attacks had damaged two facilities it supports in eastern Aleppo — the children’s hospital and the only bloodbank in the area.

Medical facilities have regularly been hit, and sometimes completely destroyed, in the government’s fight against rebels, though Damascus and Moscow deny they target hospitals.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/11/17/world/syria-regime-russia-bomb-aleppo-food-runs-hospitals-believed-targeted/#.WC8VpNQrJlY – 11/17/2016.

Doctors Without Borders said the children’s hospital and a specialized surgical hospital were hit by Wednesday’s strikes.

“Hospital staff managed to move children – including prematurely born babies – from cots and incubators to the basement of the building in order to shelter them from the bombing,” said the aid group, which sponsors both hospitals.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/doctors-without-borders-hospitals-airstrikes-syria-aleppo/ – 11/17/2016.

https://news.vice.com/article/bombs-fall-on-aleppos-largest-hospital-as-russia-sends-more-warplanes-to-syria – 10/1/2016.

“You cannot imagine what we see every day: children who are coming to us as body parts. We collect the body parts and wrap them in shrouds and bury them,” said Bara’a, a nurse at one of the affected hospitals, who was present during the bombings.

“Tell the world to wake up, to wake their consciences. Where are you? When Palestine was being destroyed everyone got involved. Why are Syria’s children being forgotten? Nobody is doing anything to reduce this suffering.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/28/aleppo-two-hospitals-bombed-out-of-service-syria-airstrikes – 9/28/2016.

Monday saw yet another targeted strike in Syria. Not against Isis or against anyone threatening. No, the latest attack was another deplorable airstrike on a Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) hospital that was providing vital medical care to the region surrounding Maarat al-Numan.

According to a monitoring group in the area, the attack resulted in more than nine people’s deaths – including one child’s – and was carried out by Russian forces. Only two days earlier they had agreed to limit hostilities in Syria.

This was no accident. Four rockets hit the hospital: it was a targeted attack, and a cold-blooded one too.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/russias-airstrike-on-a-syrian-hospital-was-no-accident-it-was-a-cold-blooded-attack-a6877046.html – 2/16/2016.

Related Reference on the Moscow Axis Relationship with “The Terrorists” in  Syria

https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/2015/09/08/how-russia-manipulates-islamic-terrorism/ – 9/8/2015.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/if-assad-is-not-forced-out-isis-never-will-be-a6759251.html – 12/3/2015.

Of the 470,000 Syrians who have been killed in this terrible war, the overwhelming majority have been killed by Assad and his allies, and that’s even truer of the civilian casualties. The United Nations in February concluded that the Assad regime had violated the laws of war in six distinct ways and committed systematized atrocities — crimes against humanity — in seven separate categories, including rape and extermination. There is no cruelty IS has committed, from sexual violence to immolation, that the regime has not at least matched and usually exceeded.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/we-should-not-celebrate-bashar-al-assads-victory-over-isis-palmyra-1552077 – 3/29/2016.

In relation to “Medieval Political Absolutism” and “Malignant Narcissism“, consider calling what Moscow-Damascus-Tehran have going in Syria the worst case of “Political Gaslighting” in history.

Readers who have made it this far with BackChannels KNOW that Assad incubated ISIL — to blackmail the west; to goad the west with refugees and a related terrorist threat; and to serve as a foil for demonstrating the latest and greatest out of Moscow’s updated military boom-boom: with Moscow central to the project, Syria has been made a win-win-win for each dictator’s ambitions and image.

BackChannels asks (along with Ukrainians) whether greater American cooperation (appeasement) with “Moscow-Tehran” will not herald the end of meaningful democracy and freedom worldwide.

Occasional Updates

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Ildar Dadin – Russian Prisoner of Conscience – Allegations of Torture

15 Tuesday Nov 2016

Posted by in 21st Century Feudal, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Russia

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Ildar Dadin case

The business newspaper Vedomosti analyzed the reasons why the case of a largely unknown opposition activist received so much attention, including that of the Kremlin. Even the presidential spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, who usually avoids commenting on such topics, called the situation unacceptable. This, on the one hand, might mean that the state propaganda machine seeks to use its full capacity to cover this issue. On the other hand, there might be a darker motive: Dadin’s case could be used as a reminder for the population of what discontent and opposition activity might lead to.
The online publication Gazeta.ru believes that it might take a while before the situation with Dadin is resolved. There are different assessments of the developments, with some arguing that Dadin might have deliberately exaggerated the situation, lying about the torture and humiliations. The situation gets even more complex, since doctors have avoided giving their accounts on Dadin’s health examination.

Borik, Anastasia.  “Trump’s victory, counter-terrorism, and the Ildar Dadin case.”  Russia Direct, November 14, 2016.

This isn’t a correctional institution, it’s a concentration camp. People aren’t held here to be to be reformed but to be humiliated. Please send a statement in my name to the Investigations Committee in connection with the fact that a whole array of torture is being used on the prisoners in IK-7. The beatings and torture aren’t stopping even now, after the intervention by [human rights ombudsman] Tatyana Moskalkova and the arrival of members of the HRC [president’s Human Rights Council] Pavel Chikov and Igor Kalyapin.

I hear people being beaten, I hear them shouting. I know the torture with hunger and cold is continuing, and I can’t write a complaint about that myself. I’m prepared to give specific dates, but personally in a conversation with human rights defenders, because I’m afraid the guard will find out and also delete those video recordings (Pavel Chikov said that the recording of Dadin’s beating may have been deleted, as the data from the video cameras is stored for 30 days, and the incident happened in September – Meduza). I know that recently they deleted video recordings from the hard disk and I want to request all the video recordings from all the cells that should exist – while at least some are still saved. It will be easy to confirm my words because the beatings take place here virtually every day.

X Soviet.  “Ildar Dadin: ‘They forced me to say, Putin is our president.” November 11, 2016.

Meduza.  “‘You won’t save anyone’: What happened to Ildar Dadin before and after he wrote his letter on torture in prison.”  November 14, 2016.

Russia’s jailing of a peaceful opposition activist for violating the country’s new law on public assemblies is a shocking and cynical attack on freedom of expression, Amnesty International said today.

Ildar Dadin was sentenced to three years in jail by a Moscow court for repeated anti-government street protests. He is the first person to be jailed using the law, which was introduced in 2014 and punishes repeated breaches of public assembly rules.

Amnesty International.  “Russia: Peaceful activist sentenced under repressive new law must be released.”  December 7, 2015.

Fast Links

https://rbth.com/politics_and_society/2016/04/14/ildar-dadin-the-first-russian-imprisoned-for-attending-a-public-rally_584969 4/14/2016.

http://en.news-4-u.ru/ildar-dading-was-transferred-to-strict-conditions-of-detention-in-ik-7-from-turning-on-prison-staff.html – 10/26/2016.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37836739 – “Russia activist Ildar Dadin accuses prison of torture” –  11/1/2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ildar_Dadin.

http://www.dw.com/en/jailed-russia-activist-ildar-dadin-accuses-prison-staff-of-torture/a-36228169 – 11/2/2016.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/01/russian-dissident-ildar-dadin-accuses-prison-staff-torture-death-threat – 11/1/2016.

Related – On the Atmosphere of the Once Former Soviet Police State

https://www.amazon.com/Secondhand-Time-Soviets-Svetlana-Alexievich/dp/0399588809.

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Also in Media: “Russia-made 300mm Smerch multiple rocket launcher ordnance found unexploded in Donbas” – Uaposition – November 14, 2016

14 Monday Nov 2016

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The SBU Security Service of Ukraine has reported an unexploded piece of ordnance of the Russian-made Smerch heavy multiple rocket launcher (MRL) was found in the Anti-Terrorist Operation zone in eastern Ukraine.The rocket landed in the yard of a local resident in the village of Berezove in Maryinsky district, Donetsk region, the SBU`s press center said.Military experts concluded that the marking of the rocket reveals that Russia`s hybrid military forces in Donbas use 300mm (12 in) rocket projectiles fitted with fragmentation submunitions scattering cluster warheads.

Source: Russia-made 300mm Smerch multiple rocket launcher ordnance found unexploded in Donbas – Uaposition

For more background on ceasefire violations in Ukraine:

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/reports

For additional background on Russian aggression in Ukraine:

UAPosition.  “English translation of audio evidence of Putin’s Adviser Glazyev and other Russian politicians involvement in war in Ukraine.”  August 29, 2016.

–33–

FTAC – ‘The Masses’, Putin, and News Awareness

13 Sunday Nov 2016

Posted by in 21st Century Feudal, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, FTAC - From The Awesome Conversation, Politics, Russia

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I generally don’t use the term “the masses”, and when I do, it’s to note how dehumanizing a term it really is.

Regarding Putin’s methods in ascent: one might credit Berezovsky and perhaps the Moscow Apartment Bombings.

On the chess pieces:

http://rbth.com/business/2016/03/09/where-does-the-russian-orthodox-church-get-its-money-from_574079

http://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-resurrects-the-kgb-moscow-security/

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/110-oligarchs-own-a-third-of-russias-wealth-8869725.html

Of course, the citizens of every state needs must care about their own lives first — biological, familial and otherwise social, financial, emotional, spiritual. Security and stability in those aspects of life are generally part of everyone’s quality of living.

That Putin has been able to sustain and transform many aspects of the defunct Soviet Union tells a story about the kind of political power exercised in relation to malignant narcissism. In effect, he has got Russia revolving around himself, and for the discomforts he has caused, the Russians have channels today for faith and patriotism. The “Communists” are gone but the essence of the old nomenklatura has been transformed into an ultra-nationalist and neo-imperial enterprise.

The public that has wished to take an interest in foreign affairs has plenty of information — responsible, valid, and reliable — for working, but large constituencies may only attend to so much in aggregate. I would not think of such as “ignorant masses” but rather people with families and jobs and struggles and worries of their own. They may find what they need to know WHEN it matters to them, when the dots circle back to their own interests, and they perceive that.

The stimulus for the response made note of the people voting Putin into power.

Mention had already been made of Berezovsky and the Moscow Apartment Bombings.

Perhaps “Russia’s state-controlled press” should have been added to the “chess pieces” –Russian Orthodox Church, KGB Revival, Oligarch Aristocracy — section of the above response: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/vladimir-putin-russia-news-media_us_56215944e4b0bce34700b1df .  I sometimes indulge in minor revision, but not this time.

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FTAC – Why the Middle East Conflict Will Be Drawn Down (If It Is ‘Drawn Down’)

11 Friday Nov 2016

Posted by in 21st Century Feudal, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, FTAC - From The Awesome Conversation, Gaza, Islamic Small Wars, Israel, Middle East, Palestinia, Politics, Russia

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Why things haven’t changed and may not until the root of the conflict has been made clear.

https://conflict-backchannels.com/2016/10/03/palestinian-kgb/

The Russian state’s history of political criminality — that which has driven the upending of its governments twice in the past 100 years  — has sat at the base of the middle east conflict and helped kept it collecting money for those it blessed: Yasser Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas, Ismail Haniyeh, and Khaled Mashaal.

I don’t know if the state of affairs will straighten out with Donald J. Trump in office, but the more word gets around, the more likely it will.

Two other notes of which to be aware:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_and_the_Soviet_Union

Once you know — and perhaps once Moscow knows the popular west knows — and once the Palestinians know — this game with the refugees should be over.

Noting the KGB history may not change Arab culpability for sustaining the refugees as an apartheid population in relation to their own states, but two legs of the old table have been removed by time — Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi, both state sponsors of terrorism.

If the 1920s may be noted as the launch period for the Muslim Brotherhood, the umbrella organization beneath which al-Qaeda and others have developed, then this new way of looking at the old conflict also starts to put away an entire era of warfare that needs finally to be consigned more largely to the 20th Century.

The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in 1928, which places that development in the same region in time as the full blown expression of Stalinism and in Germany the final fermentation of what would then soon become Nazism.

Addendum – December 26, 2016

SECURITY COUNCIL
7853RD MEETING (PM)
SC/12657
23 DECEMBER 2016
Israel’s Settlements Have No Legal Validity, Constitute Flagrant Violation of International Law, Security Council Reaffirms
14 Delegations in Favour of Resolution 2334 (2016) as United States Abstains.

Both the creation of the document, commentary on it, and the voting that ensued refused to acknowledge Moscow’s old hand in the creation of the Middle East Conflict.

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Also in Media: Ynetnews News – “The KGB’s Middle East Files: Leaking thousands of documents” – October 28, 2016

29 Saturday Oct 2016

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Within a short period of time, the MI6 launched a secret operation in which Mitrokhin and his family were smuggled to Britain. They landed in the country along with the KGB’s top secrets: tens of thousands of documents that Mitrokhin had copied and hidden in milk barrels and other containers in the floor of his two dachas, one of them in the suburbs of Moscow. Only a few people in Britain—led by then-Prime Minister John Major, who personally approved the operation—were aware of the package that had landed in their country that day.

This took place in 1992. Intelligence experts began analyzing the documents immediately and uncovered more and more revelations from Mitrokhin’s milk barrels. They included the wiretapping of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s phone, stolen US nuclear secrets, and the deep and incredible infiltration of Germany and France’s political leadership.

As a result of these documents, KGB agents were apprehended all over the world, secret operation methods were exposed, and espionage operations—some dating back many years—were thwarted. The impact in Britain, the United States, and countries across Europe was immediate. The intelligence tumult that broke out affected Israel as well, but most of Mitrokhin’s documents about the KGB’s extensive activity in Israel have never been published. Until now.

Source: Ynetnews News – The KGB’s Middle East Files: Leaking thousands of documents – 10/28/2016.