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Tag Archives: economy

Putin’s World – Not So Excellent . . . .

01 Thursday Dec 2016

Posted by commart in 21st Century Feudal, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Russia

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

culture, economy, politics, poverty, Russia

Posted to YouTube by The National, April 18, 2016.


According to the updated forecast of Economic Development Ministry for 2016, the decline of Russia’s GDP will amount to 0.6%. According to the basic forecast for 2017-2019, the economy will start to grow: GDP will grow by 0.2% in 2017 by 0.9% in 2018 and by 1.2% in 2019. According to the “basic plus” forecast, that the ministry considered to be the most realistic, the economy will grow by 1.1%, 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in the next three years.

http://tass.com/economy/916092 – 12/1/2016

An average of 19.2 million Russians – or 13.4% of the population – were living last year on less than 9,452 roubles ($139) a month, the minimum subsistence level determined by the Russian government in the fourth quarter.

This figure represents a 20% increase year-on-year, with an average 16.1 million people living below the poverty threshold in 2014.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/22/millions-more-russians-living-in-poverty-as-economic-crisis-bites – 3/21/2016.

Almost one in five respondents (17 percent) have had problems with delayed wage packets, while 16 percent expected delays in the coming months.

Some 18 percent said that that they relied on help from the state — a level not seen since 2008.

https://themoscowtimes.com/news/80-of-russians-feeling-countrys-economic-decline-55476 – 9/26/2016.

New numbers may become available for popular web searching at year’s end, but nothing BackChannels has turned up suggests conditions will improve anytime soon.  However, one report (listed in this post’s reference) on Russia’s military economy linked a boost in defense sales numbers to the demonstration in Syria of Moscow’s latest war fighting technology.

 

Where has Russia’s wealth fled?

Over the course of years, “capital flight” from Russia has been disastrous for Moscow.

2015: $58.9 billion
2014: $151.5 billion
2013: $61 billion

The URL’s go direct to source.

BackChannels has seen President Putin encourage the return of capital to Russia’s internal economy, and, still recent in the news, perceives effort to sell Russian capability to business.

Still, there remain the black marks of “unfreedom” (reference the Freedom House listing for Russia), apparent war crimes in Syria, and obvious aggression in the invention and deployment of “hybrid warfare” — and otherwise conventional enough machinery — in Crimea, Ukraine, which is today, literally, a very tense situation.

If BackChannels were part of a multi-billion dollar enterprise, it too might wish to park some largesse in old fashioned rule-of-law London (along with other wealthy — and wise — of the world).

Posted to YouTube by Real Stories, September 13, 2016.

Additional Reference

AFP.  “Russia capital flight more than doubled in 2014 to $151 bn.”  Business Insider, January 19, 2015.

Mugg, James.  “The One Chart That Russia’s Military Should Be Very Afraid Of.”  The National Interest, November 26, 2016.

Oliphant, Roland. “Russia deploys warships near Crimea as Ukraine fires missiles in air defence drill.”  The Telegraph, December 1, 2016.

Posen, Barry R.  “How to Think About Russia.”  The National Interest, November 29, 2016.

Putin, Vladimir.  “Russia Calling!  Investment Forum.”  President of Russia, Kremlin, October 12, 2016.

Rogin, Josh.  “Putin and Assad could face justice for war crimes in Syria.”  The Washington Post, October 9, 2016.

Tanas, Olga and Andre Tartar.  “Putin Favoring Military Picks Guns Over Schools, Hospitals”.  Bloomberg, September 12, 2016.

The Moscow Times.  “Russian Capital Outflow Hit $59 Billion Last Year.”   January 18, 2016.


–33–

FTAC – Dictatorships – They Devour Themselves

12 Friday Aug 2016

Posted by commart in 21st Century Feudal, Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, FTAC - From The Awesome Conversation, International Development, Political Spychology, Russia

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

economy, kleptocracy, Russia

“Different Talks – Same Walk” is the conclusion I’ve come to with “malignant narcissists”.

The Hamas leaders don’t care about the Palestinians at whose expense — and the expense of lives — they have aggrandized themselves. We’re numb to the labels: “autocrats”, “dictators”, “kleptocrats”. Each — Putin, Assad, Khamenei, Orban, Erdogan, Haniyeh, Mashaal, et al. — starts from a different positions, but using criminal means, each winds up a tyrant.

Hamas may be sold as a Utopian movement, but . . . it’s a criminal enterprise, and its idea of power is the power to impose suffering on others with impunity.

Our democracies are fragile by comparison to feudal kingdoms, but as they have their differences between them, we — North America, Europe, for the most part, and others — have been able to navigate between them as peace pays off with prosperity. What the dictatorships do please the privileged, but they don’t really pay for themselves. They don’t shift for themselves. They, in fact, devour themselves.


There’s no need to defend this post.

The privileged of Russia know how much they depend on Putin for favor — and the “outer rings” (“rings” referring to driving belts around Moscow) know that no matter what they do if they’re out of favor — complete unknowns — there isn’t much new for them.  The economy simply hasn’t fare well under kleptocracy — golly gee — and the distribution of capital and gains from capital remains deeply skewed.

Read all about it in today’s Moscow Times:

Investment continues to decline, both industrial and in residential construction. Private consumption declines as well, while Russian people say they are cutting their purchases of goods and services to survive. Then again, industrial production is stable, agriculture continues to grow, export is growing slightly in physical terms, despite the drop in commodities prices.

This economic dialogue will continue for a long time, but the main conclusion we can make is already visible.

From the Kennan Institute this month — same thing: “An Economy That Did Not Want to Grow“:

The difference between the two strategies is fundamental. Kudrin’s formula is “business environment first, private investment later,” while his opponents want “public investment first, business environment later or never.” The two visions cancel each other out and this is exactly what Vladimir Putin seems to like about it. Both projects emphasize domestic growth based on either private initiative (Kudrin) or public spending (Titov). The first path means backpedaling on aggressive foreign-policy projects and depends on reviving and empowering the urban middle class. This poses a problem however, since the Kremlin is convinced that professionals who are paid more than 1500 U.S. dollars a month are a potential threat as proved by the protest movement of 2011-2012. The second path, exemplified by large public-works projects, will inevitably lead to even more corruption than currently exists in Russia.

Was “Vegas” better in its wild mafia days?

I don’t know.

I was too young for all that.

I didn’t exist.

🙂

“Moscow” — used here as a metonym — has suffered years of capital flight and frankly fearful foreign investment.

The state appears to leverage other states amenable to a medieval worldview of competition and political absolutism; it certainly has projects like “Turkish Stream” and a few hefty nuclear programs going with Turkey’s Erdogan and Hungary’s Orban, but get right down to it, the “good” despise “the criminal” and wear out on coughing up payola.

Ukrainians tired of Yanukovych — and Yanukovych, so guilty or suspicious with guilt, threw his black book and other records into a pond before fleeing his position.

Web pages and sites like these two were in the news four years ago, and I doubt much has changed since then:

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/explosive-video-documents-depth-putins-mafia-state – n.d., circa four years ago judging by comments.


Posted to YouTube 6/26/2012.


Bill Browder on Putin, posted to YouTube May 22, 2014:


Here’s a related lively quote from an article by Masha Gessen in The New York Review of Books (March 14, 2016):

“This is not a hybrid regime!” shouted Andrei Illarionov as the conference wrapped up. Illarionov is an economist who was an economic advisor to Putin in 2000–2005—though he was never fully integrated into the regime—and now lives in Washington. “Thinking about it that way is a mistake, and analytical mistakes like that can have long-term tragic consequences.”

Capital flight from Russia looks dramatically reduced this year from where it was last year, but the prior years of losses may anchor the greater “longitudinal” picture in time.

These words appeared last fall in Business Insider (October 27, 2015):

In the past couple years, Russian hackers have launched attacks on a French television network, a German steelmaker, the Polish stock market, the White House, the US House of Representatives, the US State Department, and The New York Times.

And according to press reports citing Western intelligence officials, the perpetrators weren’t rogue cyber-pranksters. They were working for the Kremlin.

Cybercrime, it appears, has become a tool of Russian statecraft. And not just cybercrime.

Vladimir Putin’s regime has become increasingly adept at deploying a whole range of practices that are more common among crime syndicates than permanent members of the UN Security Council.

–33–

 

Live at Time of Posting – Atlantic Council – The Economic Decline of Egypt after the 2011 Uprising – YouTube

15 Wednesday Jun 2016

Posted by commart in Conflict - Culture - Language - Psychology, Egypt, Politics

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

development, economics, economy, Egypt, energy development, international investment, trade

 

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Epigram

Hillel the Elder

"That which is distasteful to thee do not do to another. That is the whole of Torah. The rest is commentary. Now go and study."

"If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If I am not for others, what am I? If not now, when?"

"Whosoever destroys a soul, it is considered as if he destroyed an entire world. And whosoever that saves a life, it is considered as if he saved an entire world."

Oriana Fallaci
"Whether it comes from a despotic sovereign or an elected president, from a murderous general or a beloved leader, I see power as an inhuman and hateful phenomenon...I have always looked on disobedience toward the oppressive as the only way to use the miracle of having been born."

Talmud 7:16 as Quoted by Rishon Rishon in 2004
Qohelet Raba, 7:16

אכזרי סוף שנעשה אכזרי במקום רחמן

Kol mi shena`asa rahaman bimqom akhzari Sof shena`asa akhzari bimqom rahaman

All who are made to be compassionate in the place of the cruel In the end are made to be cruel in the place of the compassionate.

More colloquially translated: "Those who are kind to the cruel, in the end will be cruel to the kind."

Online Source: http://www.rishon-rishon.com/archives/044412.php

Abraham Isaac Kook

"The purely righteous do not complain about evil, rather they add justice.They do not complain about heresy, rather they add faith.They do not complain about ignorance, rather they add wisdom." From the pages of Arpilei Tohar.

Heinrich Heine
"Where books are burned, in the end people will be burned." -- From Almansor: A Tragedy (1823).

Simon Wiesenthal
Remark Made in the Ballroom of the Imperial Hotel, Vienna, Austria on the occasion of His 90th Birthday: "The Nazis are no more, but we are still here, singing and dancing."

Maimonides
"Truth does not become more true if the whole world were to accept it; nor does it become less true if the whole world were to reject it."

"The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision."

Douglas Adams
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Thucydides
"The Nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools."

Milan Kundera
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What I Have Said About the Jews

My people, not that I speak for them, I nonetheless describe as a "global ethnic commune with its heart in Jerusalem and soul in the Land of Israel."

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Many things we have given up, but no one misses, say, animal sacrifice, and as many things we have kept, so we have still to welcome our Sabbath on Friday at sunset and to rest all of Saturday until three stars appear in the sky.

Most of all, through 5,773 years, wherever life has taken us, through the greatest triumphs and the most awful tragedies, we have preserved our tribal identity and soul, and so shall we continue eternally.

Anti-Semitism / Anti-Zionism = Signal of Fascism

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One hopes for knowledge to allay fear; one hopes for love to overmatch hate.

Too often, the security found in the parroting of a loyal lie outweighs the integrity to be earned in confronting and voicing an uncomfortable truth.

Those who make their followers believe absurdities may also make them commit atrocities.

Positively Orwellian: Comment Responding to Claim that the Arab Assault on Israel in 1948 Had Not Intended Annihilation

“Revisionism” is the most contemptible path that power takes to abet theft and hide shame by attempting to alter public perception of past events.

On Press Freedom, Commentary, and Journalism

In the free world, talent -- editors, graphic artists, researchers, writers -- gravitate toward the organizations that suit their interests and values. The result: high integrity and highly reliable reportage and both responsible and thoughtful reasoning.

This is not to suggest that partisan presses don't exist or that propaganda doesn't exist in the west, but any reader possessed of critical thinking ability and genuine independence -- not bought, not programmed -- is certainly free to evaluate the works of earnest reporters and scholars.

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