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I relay some conservative thought, as in the above video, with hesitation as it doesn’t represent my thoughts, but my thoughts . . . egads! smile emoticon
I think issues associated with any aspect of the “Islamic Small Wars” (my term) are by nature intergenerational and likely to be longer-lived than any single American presidential term. Therefore, the prism through which these events and processes are viewed must be wider than the instance in which they occur.
While it’s true that the Obama Administration appears to have done as much as possible to accommodate a tyrannical regime that has refused all compromise on its barbaric, lethal, and piratical agendas — outside Iran and within — it’s also true that there will be another American Administration in about a year, that other and alternative games (political and military), ideas, and plans developed and out of sight are going to be “forwarded” into that administration. While the future has yet to be written, Iran will have a new generation of professional, about 50 percent or more of it female, graduating from its colleges in the same period; it will have within whatever influence has been brought to its elites and “masses” (I hate the term, but it suits) by Internet, relationships, and by new trade; if the regime gets its money back (from sanctions), it may have issues with avarice and greed at the highest levels.
I believe Time is with the west, not the medievalists, but it takes some tolerance of threat and related patience to get through time, and, granted, the Obama Administration has embarked on a long-term but still perilous course.
The question for the medievalists — Putin, Assad, Khamenei: how well have you done, really? Extended in Yemen, stalled in Ukraine, one-third of Syria beyond state control — and each situation appears stalemated at best?
This is a long video, but it may help some readers align with the observations and thoughts of more specialized intelligentsia.
Posted to YouTube 11/26/2013.
Related: Abbas Milani.
Near horizon: uncomfortable.
The Iranian regime is known for its aggressiveness, anti-Semitism, duplicity, egoism, and piratical character.
It is also known to be ageing.
Persians know too their greater history — and none among the educated have forgotten Cyrus.
A little offstage: the effects of the history of state police forces, from the czars to the Soviet and KGB to today’s FSB in Russia and VEVAK in Iran. At about 25:15 in the above video, Professor Milani invokes the modern update term on feudalism: “state capitalism”. Oligarchy. (The URL trope to insert here: Reuters “Assets of the Ayatollah” — and so done).
Whatever one might wish to call such dictatorships operated by state mafia or theocracy, I believe the form still feudal and formed around the concentration of political power and access to wealth in one human demagogue.
In any case, the demagogue in Tehran has at hand a latent nuclear weapons making capability, in state or beyond (who knows?), and the worth of any agreement with the same has no basis in experience or earlier history (save that scandal with the illicit arms trade and even perhaps rougher politics).
Still, time is time, and the more time floats around and past the dictator, the more cultural evolution may temper the excesses of the malignant personality. Where The Great Leader will not, or cannot, change, the Greater Society may.
Related Reference
Alliance of Iranian Women: Until Victory
“In September 2012, women made up more than 60 percent of all universities’ student body in Iran.”
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